Coats, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

502
FXUS63 KDDC 091900
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe
  with large hail, west of US 283, Tuesday afternoon and
  evening.
- Dry quiet warm afternoons will prevail through this week,
  typical of late summer, with highs mainly in the 80s.
- Elevated to strong south winds each afternoon Thursday through
  Saturday.
- Next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms is
  scheduled for Saturday and Saturday night, along with severe
  weather potential.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Satellite imagery confirmed a mainly clear sky over SW KS at
midday, with mesoanalysis showing instability mounting across
the western zones. Surface analysis outlined light and variable
winds at midday, but winds will trend SEly through the afternoon
in response to lee troughing in eastern Colorado. 12z ARW/FV3
and global models agree on thunderstorm initiation along/west of
US 83 during the 4-7 pm time frame. Forcing is not as clear as
Monday, but certainly more subtle shortwaves will be rounding
the ridge axis over the Rockies, and interacting with the
unstable airmass into this evening. The most favored area this
afternoon and evening appears to be the northwest zones,
Syracuse to Scott City, where hail of 1-2 inches in diameter is
likely from any sustained, discrete convection through this
evening. SPC increased severe hail probability in these zones
on the 1630z update. 12z NAM forecasts very high instability
with CAPE as high as 4000 J/kg; as such, hail in excess of 2
inches in diameter is possible from sustained supercells.
Eastward progress of thunderstorms deeper into SW KS tonight is
unclear. A modest low level jet would help sustain any
convective clusters, but forcing for ascent will be limited to
nil with broad ridging and slowly rising midlevel heights. This
disparity probably explains the disagreement models are
displaying on convective coverage tonight. Pops through tonight
are therefore necessarily low to modest, even though some
guidance such as 12z NAM show a large MCS entering northern
zones after midnight.
Models suggest warming on Wednesday, with 500 mb heights rising
to near 590 dm, as the midlevel ridge axis makes progress onto
the plains. Followed the warmest guidance, with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Convective
potential is very low Wednesday, but probably not zero, with
residual moisture/boundaries and instability perhaps generating
an isolated storm or two at peak heating. With forcing very
weak, most locations will be dry, and the forecast will be dry.
Ridge axis moves aggressively onto the central plains Thursday,
delivering a sunny, hot windy day. Afternoon temperatures will
be well above normal for mid September, but continued standing
water and unseasonably green vegetation will keep temperatures
a few degrees below the warmest guidance. NBM`s forecast of
lower 90s appears on target. NBM`s south winds, however, are
too weak for Thursday, and prefer 12z MAV showing 20-30 mph,
with gusts around 35 mph.
Once again, sunny warm and windy Friday, as the ridge axis
slowly edges east of SW KS, forced east by a strong trough over
the Great Basin. South winds will be elevated to strong,
stronger than NBM guidance, with gusts near 40 mph, especially
late Friday afternoon and along the preferred US 83 corridor.
Expect SW KS to remain dry Thursday and Friday.
Severe thunderstorm potential is evident Saturday, as the
Rockies trough ejects onto the plains and interacts with an
expected dryline. NBM pops in the chance category late Saturday
were accepted, in agreement with global models. Some significant
severe weather may occur Saturday, if the trough`s ejection
timing remains consistent.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR will prevail through this TAF period, with varying amounts
of mid and high clouds. Another round of thunderstorms is
expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, but confidence of
impacts at any specific airport site is again very low. Model
consensus suggests any thunderstorm development after 21z Tue
will favor areas west of US 283, west of a Wakeeney-DDC-Ashland
line. As such, included a VCTS/CB mention at DDC/GCK/LBL around
03z Wed. TAF amendments are expected this evening pending radar
trends. South/southeast winds of 10-15 kts will prevail,
outside the influence of any convective outflows.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion