Coldspring, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

851
FXUS64 KHGX 061822
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
122 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend, with
  highest coverage expected on Sunday.
- Locally heavy rain and a few strong storms possible,
  particularly on Sunday.
- Drier and hot days are expected next week, though low rain
  chances will linger near the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The current zonal mid/upper flow over Texas will gradually shift
to a northwesterly regime this weekend as a trough digs south over
E CONUS and a ridge builds over W CONUS. Disturbances / vort
maxes embedded in the flow aloft will add mid/upper lift over an
increasingly moisture rich SE Texas atmosphere. Already, we are
starting to see some widely scattered shower activity on the radar
as of noon today. Daytime heating and an increasingly moist
profile should allow for shower/thunderstorm coverage to increase
this afternoon. Not every location will receive rain. However,
there will likely be a few locally heavy thunderstorms. Though we
suspect shower/thunderstorm activity will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating, the aforementioned disturbances aloft could
provide just enough lift for some overnight into Sunday morning
shower/thunderstorm activity. A peek at the 12Z HRRR shows the
potential for this scenario. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary
approaching from the north will push through the region on Sunday,
adding LL convergence/lift into the mix. This should further
enhance shower/thunderstorm coverage on Sunday, thus the higher
PoPs in your Sunday forecast. Once again, locally heavier
thunderstorms will be possible. And given we will have a NW flow
regime aloft, we couldn`t rule out a storm or two becoming strong.
By Monday and beyond, the aforementioned front is expected to
stall offshore. This will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast over the offshore Gulf waters
through much of the week, with some potential for showers in our
coastal counties. But generally speaking, the upcoming week is
looking dry. Lower dew points behind the front will decrease
humidity and allow temperatures to cool more efficiently at
night. Many southeast Texas communities away from the coast and
outside of the urban heat island are expected to drop into the
60s for a night or two or three. Afternoon temperatures should
remain on the toasty side, averaging around 90 Monday/Tuesday and
low/mid 90s Wednesday (a tad less hot than my forecast
yesterday). Dew points are expected to rise somewhat by the second
half of the week. However, our current forecast still keeps late
week dew points "low" for southeast Texas standards (mostly in the
60s).
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Extremely challenging forecast ahead when it comes to SHRA/TSRA
timing. So far, dry air has held off SHRA from the north ahead of
weak cold front. However, when the dry air is entirely moistened
up, we should see switch to SHRA (TSRA?) quickly. Have PROB30s
this afternoon up at CLL/UTS as they are farther along in the
process, as well as HOU coastward, thanks to moisture surge on
seabreeze. While CXO and IAH do not have afternoon SHRA mention,
they are about as close to a PROB30 without actually being a
PROB30. Look at UTS for a guide if things moisten up ahead of
schedule.
Tonight, as front muddles its way into the area, we`ll see winds
go VRB, then northerly while clouds at MVFR, potentially CIGs
emerge. In the extended at IAH, show PROB30s for -SHRA, but better
potential for SHRA/TSRA lies beyond 18Z. Future shifts will need
to incorporate this at IAH, then the rest of the sites with time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A frontal boundary approaching from the north will push through
the region on Sunday and stall offshore by Monday. This will keep
a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
the next several days. For areas near the coast, the highest rain
chances occur on Sunday. Much of the shower and thunderstorm
activity by Monday and beyond may bias offshore. Winds behind the
front are expected to increase from the northeast on Sunday into
Monday, possibly warranting caution flags. These winds will likely
increase seas as well.
Water levels are expected to remain above normal over the next
several days. For now, we continue to think they will remain below
3 feet above mean lower low water. But we could not rule out minor
coastal flooding during high tide in the lowest coastal spots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  85  69  88 /  20  50  10  10
Houston (IAH)  74  87  72  89 /  30  50  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  88  77  88 /  40  60  50  30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion