Collinsville, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

927
FXUS64 KFWD 071744
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms will be possible over Central Texas
  today.
- Cooler weather will continue through Tuesday before above normal
  temperatures return the latter half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/
The upper level pattern across the CONUS is currently split
between a trough near the Eastern Seaboard and a ridge over the
Rockies, with North and Central Texas lying in the middle. The
resulting northwest flow aloft (along with a surface front down
along the Gulf Coast) will provide dry and pleasant weather to
most of the region for the next few days. One possible exception
is southern portions of Central Texas, where a weak disturbance
aloft may generate a few elevated showers or storms later today,
with rain chances generally 20 percent or less.
Otherwise, low clouds will gradually transition to mostly sunny
skies this afternoon with highs in the 80s. Clouds are thicker and
more widespread than advertised by the NBM, making a slight
downward adjustment necessary for afternoon highs. Additional low
cloud and fog development will be less likely tonight as drier air
spreads in from the northeast, though patchy fog may still occur
near the Red River Valley and in Central Texas.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/
A slow eastward shift in the upper level pattern will bring the
Rockies ridge overhead by midweek. The ridge will then remain
planted over Texas and the Southern Plains for several days,
bringing a return to summer-like temperatures midweek through next
weekend. Highs will increase from the 80s early this week to the
low and mid 90s starting Wednesday, but somewhat dry conditions
will still allow low temperatures to drop into the 60s each night.
Strong subsidence associated with the ridge will shut down any
convective attempts, keeping rain chances less than 10 percent
through the end of the forecast period.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Post-frontal stratocumulus will continue to erode as drier air
spreads in from the northeast and boundary layer mixing takes
place. Conditions will hence become VFR in the next hour or so (a
few sites have already improved to VFR). Winds will slowly veer to
the east today, eventually becoming southeast overnight into
Monday. Low clouds are less likely tonight, though patchy fog
cannot be ruled out around daybreak Monday.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                83  64  85  60  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               80  58  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              81  60  84  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            82  60  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              82  65  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             81  60  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           82  63  85  61  86 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              82  65  86  60  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       82  60  86  60  89 /   5   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion