Colstrip, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

992
FXUS65 KBYZ 192328
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
528 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog & low stratus early Saturday over far southeast
  Montana.
- Dry and warmer conditions through Sunday.
- Weather system late Sunday into Monday brings chance of
  precipitation (20 to 75 percent), cooler temperatures, and gusty
  northwest winds to the region.
- Warmer and drier conditions return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through next Thursday...
As the low to the east moves through the Dakotas, MT will
transition into a ridging pattern over the weekend keeping
conditions warm and dry with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Pacific
troughing and an associated frontal passage are expected to move
through the region late Sunday into Monday. This will increase
chances for precipitation as well as bring gusty northwest winds
with and following the frontal passage. Despite models predicting
a closed low with this system, they do take it through the region
relatively quick. Currently, there is about a 50-70% chance of at
least a quarter inch of precipitation for the Beartooth/ Absaroka
and Crazy Mtns Sunday night through Monday night. The plains of
south central MT and north central WY have about a 30-50% chance,
with chances decreasing eastward. With low instability forecasted
for Sunday evening, a few weak thunderstorms can be expected
across the western mountains and foothills Sunday evening.
Although atmospheric moisture will be about 150-200% normal, low
level winds will be northwesterly rather than easterly which tends
to be more favorable for appreciable precipitation. That being
said heavy rainfall will be a concern with any thunderstorms that
do develop. An additional factor to note is with the arrival of
cooler air, snow levels will drop to around 8500-9000 ft. There is
about a 30 to 60% chance of at least an inch of snow above these
elevations. Keep an eye on the forecast, especially if you have
plans in the high country or are driving the Beartooth Pass
Monday. Cooling Monday will drop high temperatures into the 60s
and low 70s. As mentioned, gusty northwest winds around 25-35 mph
can be expected early Monday and through the day.
As the low tracks southeast mid week, there is some uncertainty on
if some of the energy associated with this system lingers in
southeast MT or not, so this will be something to watch. Otherwise
most of the region should be warm and dry as higher heights build
back in. Temperatures will gradually rise back into the upper 60s
and 70s, to 70s and low 80s by Thursday. TS
.AVIATION...
Confidence is growing (>60% chance) for an area of fog/stratus to
impact far southeast MT late tonight into early Saturday (09-15z).
IFR or lower is expected, and may spread far enough north to
include K97M & KBHK. This will need to be monitored. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours under strong high pressure
aloft. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/083 054/085 055/065 047/073 048/078 053/081 051/076
    00/U    00/U    65/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/W
LVM 046/083 047/080 044/061 037/073 042/079 045/079 044/075
    00/U    02/T    84/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
HDN 047/083 050/086 053/066 045/074 045/080 046/082 047/077
    00/U    00/U    55/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    21/U
MLS 047/080 050/085 054/071 048/074 048/080 052/081 050/076
    00/U    00/U    23/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 047/077 050/083 055/068 048/070 048/075 052/078 051/074
    00/U    00/U    13/W    11/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 044/076 046/082 050/071 045/073 046/077 048/078 047/074
    00/U    00/U    12/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 047/080 047/083 049/065 042/069 041/076 044/079 045/075
    00/B    00/U    36/T    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion