Crane, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

381
FXUS64 KMAF 221726
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Near-record high temperatures expected for Monday, the first day
  of Autumn, and possibly the warmest day the rest of the year.
- Medium (40%-55%) shower/storms chances beginning late Tuesday
  and continuing into Wednesday mainly northeast of Pecos River
  and over eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau. Cooler
  temperatures and gusty winds with a high probability Wednesday
  of gusts at least 30 mph for higher elevations of Guadalupes.
- Temperatures increase by a few degrees into late week before
  decreasing again this weekend. Overall amount of warming and cooling
  remains uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows an upper-
level ridge continuing to build in from northern Mexico. This
will set up a hot first day of Autumn across the region. High
temperatures are forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s areawide,
besides locations over the higher terrain being in the upper 80s
to low 90s. The current forecast for Midland Intl Air and Space
Port has a high of 100 degrees which would tie the record
temperature set in 1977. Afternoon rain chances stay near zero
over the entire area, thanks to strong subsidence from the ridge.
Early this evening, some CAMs have a cluster of thunderstorms
moving into portions of Lea County, NM, and perhaps entering the
far northwest Permian Basin (Gaines, Dawson, and northern Andrews
counties). Therefore, a low (10-15%) chance of showers and storms
are in place for these areas. No severe weather is expected with
these storms due to the loss of daytime heating. A warm Tuesday
morning is in store across the region as lows reach the mid 60s to
mid 70s regionwide. Midland Intl Air and Space Port has the
potential in setting a "warm low" record as the current forecast
calls for a low temperature of 74 degrees. If this occurs, this
will tie the record set back in 2017.
Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge begins to weaken due to an
upper- level trough swinging through the Central Rockies. Summer-
like temperatures are expected to remain across the forecast area.
Highs are forecast to range in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with a
few spots along the Pecos River, Rio Grande, and Presidio Valley
hitting the lower 100s. Shortwave pulses within the flow of the
weakening ridge allows for isolated rain showers and storms to
occur Tuesday afternoon into early evening. Greatest precipitation
chances (15-30%) lies over the northeastern Permian Basin, Davis,
and Guadalupe Mountains. The primary threats with these storms
will be brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
The good news is cooler temperatures and increased rain chances
are on the way as a cold front is anticipated to arrive in the
region Tuesday evening. See the long-term discussion for more
details!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Models have been trending down on temperatures midweek. Gusty
northeasterly winds behind a backdoor cold front are expected,
with a high probability of gusts up to 30 mph in the Guadalupes
and some gusts as high as 45 mph or more in the highest elevations
and passes of the Guadalupes for Wednesday afternoon - something
we have not seen since spring. These winds will keep highs in the
lower to mid 80s F most of Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau and
Rio Grande basins, lower to mid 70s F higher elevations into SE
NM plains, and upper 80s F to lower 90s F Presidio Valley into
Terrell County, with mid to upper 90s F only for the Big Bend.
Accompanying the cooler temperatures will be low to medium
(25%-40%) shower/storm chances northeast of Pecos River from SE NM
plains into Permian Basin, and then medium (40%-55%) chance of
showers/storms eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau during
the afternoon/evening. Low (20%-30%) rain chances persist
southwest of the Pecos River Wednesday night as lows fall into the
lower 60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher elevations and much of Lea
County into northern Permian Basin, with upper 60s F to lower 70s
F only found within a few hundred miles of and along the Rio
Grande. As the backdoor cold front clears the area and the
accompanying mid to upper storm system develops off to the east,
near zero shower/storm chances and clearer skies return to the
area, allowing highs to rise into the mid to upper 80s F, upper
70s F to lower 80s F higher elevations, and upper 80s F to mid 90s
F from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Lows again fall into the
mid 50s to lower 60s F range Thursday night, but a few degrees
warmer as mid to upper ridging again begins to build over the
area.
Uncertainty in the temperatures and mid to upper air pattern and
positioning of surface features increase later this week. Warmer
temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s F range Friday and Saturday
show a cooling trend later in the week as highs similar to
Thursday build back in by next weekend in grids. Lows likewise
remain largely in the mid 50s F to lower 60s F range throughout,
with south/southeast winds and no near term repeat of gusty winds
that we are expecting to see on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are
also uncertain, but models are indicating a high probability of
only a few tenths of an inch for most places in a medium PoP-low
QPF setup.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions prevail. Winds are forecast to remain relatively
light at most sites this afternoon, though storms passing to the
north of CNM and HOB later today may briefly make for erratic
winds. A cold front begins to sweep into the area Tuesday, giving
winds a northerly component.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  72  98  65 /   0   0  20  50
Carlsbad                 98  68  94  65 /  10  10  10  40
Dryden                   99  72  99  72 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            99  72  98  67 /  10   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           87  66  86  60 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                    96  66  92  60 /   0  10  10  40
Marfa                    90  61  90  60 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  73  98  67 /   0   0  10  50
Odessa                   98  73  97  66 /   0   0  10  50
Wink                     99  71  97  65 /   0   0  10  40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...95

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion