Cranston, Rhode Island Weather Forecast Discussion

121
FXUS61 KBOX 200718
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
318 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief shot of cooler air this weekend will be followed by a
warming trend early next week. The dry weather pattern also
continues next week with the exception of some showers possible
around the middle of the week. Temperatures will also average
above normal next week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest
day; temperatures may reach 80+ in some locations then.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* Dry with light winds and elevated fire weather concerns over the
  interior
An upper level ridge sits to our east over the Great Lakes region
and its associated surface high pressure sits over southern New
England today. The cold air behind yesterday`s cold front remains
settled over the region; 925 mb temperatures today expected to range
between 10C and 13C. With diurnal mixing, surface temperatures are
expected to barely reach 70F for most locations outside of the river
valleys. Even there, highs today may just hit 70F or a degree or two
above. NE winds will keep east-facing coastal areas comfortably in
the mid 60s through today.
Model soundings remain consistent in indicating good mixing today
with low relative humidity. With the airmass aloft lacking in
moisture, the air that mixes down today will aid in widening the gap
between surface air temperatures and dew points. The result is lower
RH values particularly over the interior where they will range
between 25 and 35 percent. Coastal areas can expect slightly higher
values due to onshore flow. The good news is that even with these
dry conditions, light winds will keep the region out of Red Flag
Warning criteria. However, a Special Weather Statement is in effect
through the afternoon for MA as fire weather concerns are still
slightly higher today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Radiational cooling tonight with sink lows into the 30s for some
  spots; 40s expected everywhere else
* Dry and cool weather continues into Sunday
Good radiational cooling is expected tonight with winds going calm,
conditions remaining dry, and skies staying clear. Lows will likely
dip into the upper 30s for parts of the interior, especially across
NW MA. Some spots in the higher elevations could even see some
patchy frost with lows having a chance at reaching the mid 30s.
The trend of dry weather will continue Sunday. The cooler airmass
remains over the region for one more day as high pressure starts to
move offshore in the afternoon/evening with the upper level ridge
also moving over southern New England into the Gulf of Maine. Winds
will shift more SE as the day goes on which will set the stage for a
warming trend going into the start of next week. Some increased
cloud cover is also possible for Sunday as the high exits. Highs
Sunday expected to remain mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* The dry pattern continues aside from a low chance for some showers
  midweek
* Temperatures average above normal through the week
Overall trends haven`t changed much since the previous forecast. A
trough over the Great Lakes moves east as the high makes its exit
and a front with some waves of low pressure along it will track
towards the region. With high pressure shifting offshore, southerly
flow kicks in Monday, becoming SW-ly Tuesday, increasing
temperatures and moisture which may also peak Tuesday. Ensemble
probs for temperatures 80F+ remain relatively favorable across
eastern MA and the CT River Valley, though they have continued to
trend down slightly over the past few runs. Despite this, ensembles
remain in agreement that the highest temperatures Tuesday will
likely be over the CT and Merrimack River Valleys. Ensembles are in
good agreement in mean PWAT values ranging between 1.4-1.6" across
the region by Tuesday afternoon/evening, and deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue to indicate some instability that could
support rain showers with an occasional rumble of thunder. However,
much could still change this far in advance of this pattern shift,
so confidence remains low at this time.
This disturbance moves east through midweek with upper level ridging
and surface high pressure making a return towards Thursday while a
large upper level low circulates over the central US and the
Midwest. Temperatures begin to fall back into the 70s and upper 60s
past Tuesday, averaging out to be just above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
No major changes from the previous forecast.
Through 12z...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds becoming N generally at 10 knots or less, except over
ACK where winds may remain around 10 knots or greater.
Saturday...High Confidence.
VFR. North winds generally 10 knot or less (outside of a few
brief 15-20+ knot gusts across the Cape/ACK) turn NE during the
morning and eventually E during the afternoon along the coastal
plain.
Saturday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. Calm/light and variable winds. Winds may take slightly
longer to decrease over the Islands but should become less than
10 knots.
Sunday...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds becoming W to SW through the day at 10 knots or
lower (slightly higher than 10 knots over the Islands).
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High Confidence.
Seas will fall to 3 ft or less through tonight before starting
to build to 4 ft Sunday.
NW winds fall below 20 kts across all marine zones today and
shift more W heading into tonight and Sunday. Winds over the
northern waters will remain lower than the southern waters
through this period, but they will fall to 15 kts or less over
all marine zones by tonight.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Hrencecin/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Hrencecin
MARINE...Hrencecin

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion