Dahomey, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS64 KJAN 060735
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
235 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Today...A cold front dropping southeast through the forecast area
through this afternoon, will result in showers and storms affecting
the forecast area through mainly the morning and early afternoon
hours.  With cooler drier air over-running the CWA through the
course of the morning, convection is forecast to dissipate across
the area through the afternoon, despite the front continuing its
southeast trek through the area. This scenario looks to keep the
better rain chances confined to mainly northern and central portions
of the forecast area today.
High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front as
it clears the CWA late in the afternoon. The resulting advecting
cooler drier airmass into the region will result in a wide array of
high temperatures across the forecast area today.  Therefore, look
for them to range from the upper 70s across the Delta to the lower
90s across the Pine Belt region. /19/
Saturday Night through next Friday...The overall forecast for
the long term period remains on track with no adjustments made to
the overall forecast. A few lingering showers will be possible
across a good portion of our forecast area as near term guidance
from both the GFS and the Euro show the cold front tracking
southward towards the Gulf Coast by Saturday evening. Quiet
weather conditions will dominate our forecast heading into the
overnight period as high pressure builds into the region. Areas
north of I-20 will see nighttime temperatures in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Elsewhere, areas long and south of I-20 will see
overnight lows in the mid 60s. Looking ahead into Sunday, slightly
cooler and drier conditions will continue to advect south into
the CWA thanks to north to northeast flow. Overall, quiet weather
conditions with slightly normal late summer conditions will exist
across our forecast area Sunday through Monday night.
The remainder of the extended period will remain generally quiet
Tuesday through Thursday. Global guidance continues to show
mid/upper level troughing beginning to slowly slide east across the
area through Thursday evening. This will allow for ridging aloft to
gradually build into the region from the west. Regarding the rain
chances, portions of southeast MS could see a slight chance of
scattered showers by Tuesday afternoon, with afternoon PoPs between
15-20%. Ridging aloft will continue across our CWA Friday through
the weekend with afternoon highs peaking into the low 90s areawide.
/CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next few hours. As a cold front and convection associated with it
begin moving into the Delta region between 07-08Z, flight
categories will begin deteriorating to at least MVFR status, as a
result of lowering ceilings and degraded visibilities when and if
convection is observed on-station. The front will sink southeast
through the area during the course of the day, with winds becoming
northerly and a few gusts between 15-18 knots possible later this
morning into early this afternoon. As the drier air stabilizes
our airmass through the morning, convection is currently forecast
to erode from late morning through mid-afternoon. This will allow
for a return to VFR categories areawide by this evening. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  66  84  60 /  60  10   0   0
Meridian      88  65  84  60 /  40  10   0   0
Vicksburg     82  65  84  60 /  70  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   93  69  88  63 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       85  66  84  61 /  50  10  10   0
Greenville    77  61  84  57 /  60  10   0   0
Greenwood     79  62  85  57 /  60  10   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19/CR

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion