Dalhart, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

411
FXUS64 KAMA 170548
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- High chances for rain and thunderstorms are forecasted for
Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances for rain on
Wednesday evening into the night.
- Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected
Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Showers and storms just to the north overnight tonight may manage to
clip into the OK Panhandle.  Overall, just moderate rain with small
hail is the main concern.  Will not completely rule out some
isolated elevated storm further south as mid level moisture may
saturate just enough to a storm to pop off on its own.  That being
said still just heavy rain is the main concern.
Wednesday, upper level trough over Wyoming will shift a bit to the
southeast over western Nebraska later in the evening.  As a result
we`ll be dealing with a frontal system that`s expected to track
south across the Panhandles and stall out somewhere what looks to be
along that highway 60 corridor from Canadian to Hereford.  That area
of strong convergence coupled with daytime heating will aid in
several thunderstorms popping off along that boundary.  Shear values
do look to be in the +30kt range, but the overall CAPE is only
expected to be in the 500-1000J/kg range.  So the severe threat is
certainly on the lower side, but we are outlooked for a 5% chance
from SPC, and that seems reasonable.  Max hail size looks to be
about half dollar, and we do have a bit of an inverted V sounding at
the surface, so will not rule out some wind gusts that could reach
60 mph.  Now this area of convergence could shift a bit to the north
or south, but behind this main area we could still see development
as we still may heat up enough to get storms despite being behind
the main front.  And those areas further north would be where the
larger hail stones could be seen, if storms can get going.  Now as
the system takes a slow progression we`ll be dealing with that
stalled out boundary where multiple rounds of storms could develop
on Wednesday night into Thursday.
Thursday`s highs for the most part will be in the 70s given the
cooler air in place, but further south of I-40 where the front may
not progress, we could still see low to mid 80s for a high.
Lingering showers and storms are expected along that convergence
zone and a good portion of the precipitation is expected to move
east into OK, but we`ll still have decent pops along and east of the
Amarillo to Guymon line.  Pops will start to gradually drop off
Thursday night as the systems influence exits the area.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Friday through the weekend, while we are looking at a building ridge
of high pressure, we will still be dealing with west to northwest
flow and embedded disturbances that move across the area.  That will
continue the possibility of showers and storms through the weekend.
Right now the better chances seem to be in the eastern Panhandles,
but will not rule out any area getting showers or storms.  Chances
are in the 15-25% range for now, but would not be surprised if those
numbers come up, especially in the east.
Monday into Tuesday we`ll start to finally amplify that upper level
ridge over the west and in conjunction the trough that appears to be
just far enough east over OK.  That would favor a reduction in
showers and storms, and a better chance at dry conditions.  Monday
may still have cooler temperatures and lingering storms, while
Tuesday it appears that the trough is far enough east that
conditions should be dry, and we should start to warm up.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 12
hours. But we will have some thunderstorm chances in the second
half of the TAF period that could be MVFR/IFR, in which PROB30s
have been noted. Winds generally will be out of the south to
southwest for the most part and be in the 10 to 15kt range.
Overnight storms near TAF sites, especially KGUY will be possible,
but confidence is low, and we`ll deal with them via amendments.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion