Dearing, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

532
FXUS63 KICT 140806
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening,
  mainly along and west of the Flint Hills. An isolated severe
  storm or two possible late this afternoon and evening west of
  I-135.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues Tuesday or Tuesday night
  through Friday, with additional off-and-on rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms.
- Near to above average temperatures through Tuesday, turning
  near to below average Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...A deep upper trough approaching from the
west amidst seasonably rich moisture will support scattered to at
time numerous showers/thunderstorms expanding east across central
and eastern Kansas this morning through this evening. Thinking
activity will be most numerous/widespread through early afternoon,
especially west of Interstate 135, although afternoon heating amidst
increasing large scale ascent should support at least isolated to
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms as far east as southeast
Kansas.
Regarding severe weather potential, limited instability should
prevent severe storms for most, with small hail, gusty winds, and
locally heavy rainfall the primary concerns. However, thinking there
is a window for an isolated marginally severe storms late this
afternoon into the evening generally west of I-135. It`s here that
an adequate combination of instability and shear amidst strong forcing
could produce a few storms capable of dime to quarter size hail and
50-60 mph winds.
Widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely with this system, with
most areas likely seeing around one-quarter inch or less. However,
localized 1+ inch amounts are possible within the stronger
convection, would may support localized minor flooding concerns.
MONDAY...Could see a few lingering isolated showers/thunderstorms
across central and eastern Kansas, within a continued moist airmass
ahead of another approaching upper trough. Severe weather is not
expected.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A slow-moving deep upper trough over Mid-
America will support off-and-on scattered to at times numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region Tuesday or Tuesday night
through Friday. While an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm or
two is possible throughout the time period, most activity will
remain below severe levels. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
NEXT WEEKEND...The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue, with
another shortwave potentially supporting additional showers and
thunderstorms across the region.
TEMPERATURES:
Near to above average temperatures look to persist today through
Tuesday. From Wednesday through next weekend, increased
precipitation chances and decreasing atmospheric thickness should
support a modest cool down, with many locations in the 70s to low
80s for daytime highs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Light southeast winds will prevail tonight as some widely
scattered showers fester into parts of central KS. Some
lingering shower activity is possible through the morning hours
for parts of central KS although VFR is expected to prevail.
Southerly winds will begin to pick up on Sunday with some 20
knot gusts possible over central KS. Showers and thunderstorms
may also redevelop late tomorrow afternoon/early evening across
central KS possibly impacting KRSL-KGBD toward 00Z. Some MVFR
cigs could develop in the stronger shower and storm activity.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion