Defeated, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS64 KOHX 100529
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Dry pattern will prevail through at least the next 7 days.
- Warming trend with highs mostly upper 80s to lower 90s late this
  week and some mid to upper 90s next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The national picture shows a ridge over the center of the nation
with upper level troughs to each side. The ridge will be the main
player in our wx through the next 7 days as it gradually shifts
eastward and sets up from the Great Lakes to Gulf Coast.
But, before the ridge axis moves overhead, there will be a couple
of weak disturbances that rotate around the periphery of the ridge
into the eastern trough. The NBM continues to give us a dry
forecast with limited atmospheric moisture for rainfall
production. But, a few HREF ensemble members are spitting out a
couple of stray showers late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Cape values will be increasing, a few hundred Wednesday PM and
about 1000 by Thursday PM as precipitable water values rise over
1.25". This may be just enough for a couple of little showers,
but not enough to justify "mentionable" pops above 10 percent at
this time. Overall, most areas will stay dry.
Otherwise, temperatures will creep upward over the next couple of
days, and humidity will increase slightly.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A strong ridge axis overhead will bring dry conditions with very
warm to hot days (5 to 8 degrees above normal) and seasonable
nights. Daytime highs will reach mostly upper 80s to mid 90s.
Thanks to reasonable humidity levels, daytime heat index values
will be kept in check, mostly below the actual temperatures. The
low humidity will also allow temperatures to cool off into the 60s
each night. The dry desert-like pattern will hold through this
forecast period and likely beyond as the 8 to 14 day outlook keeps
conditions warm and dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A surface ridge has set up to the immediate east of Middle
Tennessee, so we can look forward to another day with a dry,
stable air mass in place. Expect light/calm winds through the TAF
period with VFR wx, except for overnight radiation fog and
possible low stratus along the Cumberland Plateau.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  65  91  62 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    90  63  92  60 /  10  10  10   0
Crossville     79  58  80  54 /  10  10  10   0
Columbia       87  63  90  60 /  10  10  10   0
Cookeville     81  60  83  56 /  10  10  10   0
Jamestown      80  58  81  55 /  10  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   86  61  88  59 /  10  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   87  63  90  59 /  10  10  10   0
Waverly        88  63  91  61 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion