Denton, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

146
FXUS62 KJAX 040016
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
816 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Moderate to Minor Tidal Flooding through Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flood impacts within the St. Johns River Basin, Coastal
- Northeast FL & Intracoastal Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor Tidal Flood impacts Coastal Southeast GA & Nassau County
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Early Next Week. High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Coastal Wind Gusts up to 40 mph by midday through early evening daily
- Locally Heavy Rain & Flood Risk through Early Next Week. Waves of Heavy Downpours, Isolated Coastal Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at Coastal & Normally Flood Prone, Low-lying Locations
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Adjust rain chances for the evening with the NBM too dry across
inland NE FL. Coastal showers will continue through the night with
gusts 30-35 mph at times under locally heavy rainfall.
The coastal flood warning is now in effect for the entire St.
Johns River Basin and Coastal NE Florida including Duval, St.
Johns and Flagler counties. The Coastal Flood Advisory is in
effect for Nassau county and the southeast GA coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...
Local nor`easter conditions persist through tonight with enough low
level moisture and convergence on a stationary and inverted trough
hanging off the Atlantic shoreline. With the bulk of the moisture
below 700mb, drier air aloft will continue to limit thunder chances
through most of the area as the waves of quick moving showers shift
inland through the rest of the day and tonight.
Tight pressure gradients between the establish surface ridge in the
Mid Atlantic and the weak area of low pressure developing north of
Cuba will continue gusty winds along the coast which may
occasionally reach gusts near 40 mph through today.
Strong onshore winds will push ocean water into the coast and into
the St Johns River (and it`s tributaries) tonight resulting in
rising tidal levels. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories have been
kept as they were as confidence in Moderate tidal flood impacts are
likely tonight and through the weekend, especially as the Spring-
Perigee tides increase with the approaching Full Moon (on Monday).
Thanks to the cooling from onshore flow and cloud cover,
temperatures will stay in the low/mid 80s this afternoon. Cooling
will occur inland more so than near the coast as winds will decrease
tonight. Still, lows will only be in the mid/upper 60s whereas the
low 70s will be more common along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)
Bouts of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue through
the weekend with convection developing from east to west across
the forecast area, with conditions becoming more widespread on
Sunday along with gusty easterly winds with sustained speeds
rising to be about 15-25 mph and gusts of about 35 mph. There is a
potential this weekend for excessive rainfall capable of producing
local flooding conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of
2.2 inches as a moist unstable flow ahead of the boundary passes
over the region. High temperatures for the end of the week and
into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s with
overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Friday)
Showers with embedded storms and breezy winds will continue on
into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection becoming
less intense as the week progresses with drier extending in from
high pressure out to the northeast rotating into the region by
midweek. Winds will build on Thursday ahead of a cold front
pressing southward from out of the north. Temperatures will
experience a slight warming trend through the coming week with
daytime high temperatures rising to be near and slightly above the
seasonal average by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Blustery onshore ENE winds will continue through the forecast
period with periodic MVFR restrictions under low stratus and IFR
visibility at times under heavy rainfall. For this evening,
advertised TEMPOs for gusty showers and MVFR restrictions through
01-02z inland at VQQ and GNV and to 04z for coastal terminals.
This TEMPOs will be further adjusted based on radar trends. Inland
terminals will drop to less than 10kts tonight with coastal
locations elevated 10-15kts with gusts 18-25 kts at times.
Stronger gusts develop after 12z Saturday with increasing shower
coverage through 18z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the local
Atlantic waters through midweek next week due to persistent
onshore flow and high combined seas between high pressure north of
the region and coastal troughs over the local waters. Waves of
gusty showers will continue to move onshore with a low risk of
thunderstorms.
For the evening updated...Updated the forecast with 18z WNAwave
data as the local NWPS data was running 2-4 ft above evening
observations. This did not impact Small Craft Advisory headline
criteria, but adjusted combined seas forecast into the observed
ranged this evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
With persistent, strong onshore winds continuing to "trap" tides
within the St. Johns River basin combining with the approach of
Tuesday`s "Harvest" Full Moon, a more widespread moderate tidal
flooding event will continue near high tides through the weekend.
Coastal Flood Warning: This warning includes the St. Johns River
Basin, ICWW & NE FL coast from Mayport to Flagler Beach. Tidal
levels will continue to crest generally between 2 to 2.5 ft in the
St. Johns River basin and range between 2-3 feet in the ICWW and
along the coast. Moderate tidal flooding impacts include flooding
of low- lying roads and water surrounding some vulnerable
structures.
Coastal Flood Advisory: This advisory now includes the Nassau
County coast as well as coastal southeast GA. Tidal levels will
build to near 2 ft of inundation, which will mainly cause minor
tidal flooding impacts including flooding of some boat ramps,
docks, over-topping of bulkheads and some tidal-prone roads in
low- lying areas.
The tidal flooding will be an extended duration, as astronomical
tides will not peak until the mid to late part of next week. With
brisk onshore flow continuing through Monday and then potentially
re- strengthening late next week, we can expect Coastal Flood
Advisories / Watches / Warnings to continue through much of the
upcoming week, possibly longer for some locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  64  82  68 /   0  10  20  10
SSI  80  71  81  72 /  30  40  30  40
JAX  83  70  83  72 /  50  40  50  40
SGJ  83  72  83  73 /  50  50  60  50
GNV  85  68  84  71 /  30  20  40  20
OCF  84  70  84  72 /  40  20  40  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion