Denver City, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

857
FXUS64 KLUB 171123
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over the far
   southern Panhandle.
- Better chances for showers and storms arrive over most of the
   region Thursday through Friday, with slight chances continuing
   over the weekend.
- Mild temperatures persist through the rest of the work week
   with warmer than average highs expected this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have tapered off as expected and
another quiet night will be in order with mostly clear skies, light
southerly winds, and lows in the 60s. An upper trough over the
Dakotas will interact and eventually merge with a cutoff low
descending southward over the Canadian Prairies. Most of the
shortwaves propagating around the more broad circulation will remain
too far north and west to have much of an influence over our area,
and thus much of the region looks to see a pleasant day similar to
the previous two days, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs
in the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds will veer southwest in the morning,
but return to a more southerly direction by afternoon. A more
notable shortwave will track west to east across the Panhandle late
day, and may slightly increase PoPs over northern areas. However,
most of the area should remain dry and if any storms do stray
southward, they should not last long nor be overly significant.
Isolated shower activity may continue into the overnight hours.
Otherwise expect similar benign conditions Thursday morning to
previous overnights.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The atmosphere will be in the final stages of a complicated blocking
pattern during the late week period as ridging aloft centered over
the Canadian Prairies finally deamplifies, in turn allowing a broad
upper low which had been stationary over the northern Plains states
to open and begin moving slowly eastward. Models generally depict a
similar synoptic evolution as prior runs, with initially weak zonal
flow aloft over West TX progged to strengthen and become more west-
northwesterly during the Thu-Fri timeframe with a broader northwest
flow regime likely to set up over the weekend. The highest potential
for showers and storms during the extended appears to be during the
Thursday through early Friday timeframe during which most models
indicate that the cyclonic H5 jet will be closest to our region,
with a weak southward-moving surface front also present as well.
Even so, with the best upper level forcing likely to be mainly to
our northeast, this activity currently looks like it will be limited
in coverage and likely be scattered at best. Forecast confidence
decreases Friday into the weekend with models diverging on the
amplitude and positioning of an upper ridge which will be building
in the vicinity of Baja CA. Regardless of the specifics, at least
some degree of somewhat unsettled northwest flow aloft is probable
across much of the central CONUS which combined with fairly decent
moisture keeps storm chances in the slight chance range over most of
the region Friday and Saturday. These storm chances then shift off
the Caprock Sunday into early next week as the Baja ridge builds
northeastward. Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal
averages through Friday before the increasing influence of the ridge
results in a return of warmer than average highs for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Barring a stray TS from PVW-CDS this evening, VFR and light SSW
winds prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion