Devine, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

178
FXUS65 KPUB 052019
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
219 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers on our plains and thunderstorms over the high country look
  to persist off and on through the rest of this evening.
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  for Saturday, with warmer temperatures expected across the
  region.
- A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible across
  the plains Sunday.
- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected next week,
  though mostly along the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Currently..
Showers continue to push across the plains, generally along a
west to east path following the Highway 50 corridor. As of 2 PM,
no lightning is present on the plains. Showers and weak
thunderstorms have also developed over the high country over the
past couple of hours, with a few cells strong enough to produce
lightning present over the San Luis Valley and the San Juans.
Snow has come to an end over the summit of Pikes Peak. Clearing
and drying trends can be seen at the top of America`s Mountain.
Winds are light and generally southeasterly over the I-25
corridor, which will keep upsloping conditions present as we
head into the evening hours. Extensive cloud cover can be seen
on area observations and satellite observations, though some
clearing is beginning over the Pikes Peak region.
Rest of Today and Tonight..
Current thinking is that the atmosphere is mostly too cool and
stable to produce any lightning and embedded thunderstorm activity
on our plains this evening. Temperatures are still in the 40s over
much of El Paso County and 50s over the rest of the plains as of 2
PM. High res model guidance suggests that our current band of
showers over the Highway 50 corridor will continue to weaken and
drift slightly southward, becoming less cohesive with time. Models
also suggest another round of showers for the Pikes Peak region
through the later afternoon and early hours, with more clearing
after 8 PM or so at the latest. Showers and weak thunderstorms will
continue to be possible over the high country through much of the
evening as well. Overnight lows look to remain in the 40s for much
of the plains which is at least few degrees below normal for many
locations, though cloud cover should help to keep our temperatures
from tanking too dramatically.
Tomorrow..
Thick cloud cover and fog will be possible through the early morning
hours of Saturday, especially over the San Luis Valley and El Paso
County. Please use caution while driving early tomorrow morning! An
upper ridge building to our west will help to warm us up and clear
us out early tomorrow, though the moisture stream looks to continue
to sit over us through the weekend. Northwest flow aloft and more
available sunlight/heating at the surface will likely allow for more
instability and more coverage of showers and thunderstorms for our
Saturday, though at this time severe development is not expected. A
few stronger storms may be possible, especially over the Pikes Peak
region and the Raton Mesa, with wind gusts to 50 mph, small hail,
and frequent lightning all possible in stronger storms. The primary
concern with tomorrow`s convection looks to remain heavy rainfall
and flash flooding though, especially for areas that saw significant
rainfall with today`s convection. Our burn scars, urban centers, and
other typically flood prone areas will need to be closely monitored
tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow look to rebound quickly, though will
likely remain near to slightly below normal. Highs are likely to
remain in the 70s and low 80s on the plains, with low 70s over our
mountain valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Saturday Night - Sunday: For the later part of the weekend, active
weather continues, particularly for Sunday. Synoptically, a
shortwave will be pushing over Saturday night, with northwest flow
then prevailing through Sunday. Forcing is expected to be heightened
Saturday night with the wave passage, and become more terrain
focused Sunday. Along with all of that, at least modest moisture
is expected to be in place. With broader forcing and moisture
in place Saturday night, lingering isolated to scattered showers
are anticipated, though mostly across the valleys and
mountains. Then for Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to blossom along the higher terrain and push across the
valleys and plains during the afternoon hours. In addition, a
couple of strong to severe storms will be possible across the
plains Sunday, where at least modest shear around 30 knots is
expected to overlap with heightened moisture and instability.
If any storm can become organized enough, strong outflow winds
and large hail would be the primary hazards. Beyond all of that,
relatively light winds are anticipated Saturday night, with
breezier winds Sunday afternoon, and mostly clear skies Sunday
morning becoming partly to mostly cloudy through the afternoon.
As for temperatures, near to slightly below seasonal values are
expected for much of the region.
Monday - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period, active
weather is anticipated for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Flow will become predominantly southwesterly
as troughing develops to the west of ridging to the east/southeast.
This will allow for persistent orographic forcing to be in place,
along with allowing for persistent moisture advection over the area.
With both forcing and moisture heightened, daily showers and storms
are expected, though with the greatest coverage remaining along the
mountains where forcing will be maximized. Outside of that, winds
will start to become breezy as increased flow sits over the region,
with periods of increased cloud cover during the afternoons. Looking
at temperatures, a warming trend is anticipated thanks to
downsloping winds, with much of the area warming back to above
seasonal values by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
KCOS and KPUB...IFR to MVFR conditions are likely to persist off and
on at both KCOS and KPUB as showers look to pass through both
stations throughout the day. Improving conditions are likely at both
stations through the late afternoon and evening hours as some
clearing tries to move in, though persistent upsloping is expected
to bring ceilings back down through the overnight hours of tonight
into early Saturday morning. Mist and potentially fog will be
possible at KCOS as well, though confidence in FG was too low to
include in the TAF at this time.
KALS..Showers and weak thunderstorms have begun to form over
northern portions of the San Luis Valley, and are likely move over
and in the vicinity of KALS off and on throughout much of the
afternoon hours. Brief reductions to MVFR visibilities and ceilings
will be possible during shower and thunderstorm activity today, with
improvement likely after 01Z this evening. Depending on rainfall
amounts with afternoon convection, IFR ceilings and mist will also
be likely through the morning hours of Saturday at KALS as well.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion