Dewitt, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

335
FXUS61 KAKQ 180147
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
947 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering area of low pressure continues to dissipate and
move offshore tonight. A brief warmup is expected by late week
before a return to slightly below normal temperatures this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Drizzle or mist is possible through tonight as the low   continues
to linger.
- Weather conditions improve tomorrow as the low exits the   area.
This evening, an upper low is now centered just off the northern Mid
Atlantic coast and continues to slowly drift off to the NE.
At the surface, a dissipating area of low pressure is centered not
far from the AKQ NWS office. Widespread low cloud cover, mist, and
patchy fog will continue throughout the night due to saturated low
levels. While we are finished with the steady rain, we still could
pick up ~0.01" or so in a few isolated locations overnight (mainly
NE). Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
For tomorrow, high pressure will finally move back into the area as
the low moves further off the coast. This high will bring in drier
and warmer weather conditions. Sky cover will slowly clear but
remain mostly cloudy to the east and partly cloudy to the west. High
temperatures for the day will climb into the lower 80s along and
west of I-95 and upper 70s East of I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Warm and pleasant weather conditions are expected Friday as high
pressure remains in control.
-Back door cold front expected Saturday bringing back seasonable
conditions.
A weak ridge will be centered over the area Friday. At the surface,
high pressure will remain in control helping to bring back some
warmer air which will lead to above seasonable temperatures for the
day. Highs Friday will be in the middle 80s across the area with the
possibility of some isolated locations nearing the upper 80s. With
the high pressure remaining over the area dry conditions under
mostly clear skies are expected. Over night temperatures will drop
down into the lower 60s inland and middle 60s along the coast. By
early Saturday a back door cold front is expected to move over the
area bringing temperatures back down to seasonable as well as a
possible chance of showers across the far west. Temperatures will be
split across the area with highs in the middle to upper 70s across
the north and lower 80s across the south. There is still much
disagreement within the ensembles and deterministic models on
chances of rain. At this time have continues with the NBM which has
a 15% chance of showers across our far western counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Cold front stalls across the coastline bringing chances of showers
along the coast.
As the cold front moves across the area a high pressure moving out
of Northern Canada will move over the New England coast. Ensembles
remain in disagreement with one another causing uncertainty in the
forecast. As the frontal boundary stalls across the coastline and
the high remains to the NE this could potentially lead to a CAD
leaving some of the areas much cooler than expected. However, with
the disagreement in the models continues to stick with the NBM for
temperatures and PoPS  for Sunday through Tuesday.  Pops remain
between 15 to 20% and are heavily confined to the coastline where
that frontal boundary is expected to stall. As for temperatures
highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However,
they could potentially lower as models come into better agreement
and confidence increases.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...
Low pressure remains centered over the area this evening, with
widespread low clouds and mist/light rain continuing. CIGs fall
back to IFR at all locations over the next couple of hours and
remain IFR throughout the night and into Thursday morning. LIFR
CIGs are also possible, with the greatest confidence at RIC and
PHF. In addition, VSBYs may be restricted to as low as 1-2SM at
times throughout the night due to a combination of BR and DZ.
Conditions slowly improve after sunrise, but IFR CIGs likely try
to hang around into the mid-morning hours before improving back
to VFR by early afternoon (sub-VFR CIGs linger the longest near
the coast). Dry/VFR conditions return tomorrow afternoon. Winds
are generally light and variable this evening due to low
pressure remaining overhead, winds become NW (~5 knots) later
tonight into tomorrow as the low dissipates/moves away.
Outlook: Outside of localized instances of morning patchy fog,
dry/VFR conditions are expected Thursday night into Saturday.
Another round of sub-VFR CIGs may be possible Saturday night
into Sunday in the wake of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories for elevated seas are in effect until 7 PM
this evening north of Cape Charles.
- Lighter winds and sub-SCA conditions expected Thursday and Friday.
The low pressure system that brought the strong winds to the area
yesterday has spun down and weakened considerably over
central/eastern VA today. With the low center W of the waters, the
wind direction is generally S-SE and speeds are only around 10 kt.
Earlier Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay were allowed to
expire given the reduction in winds. Seas have also fallen, but
remain 4-6 ft N of Cape Charles in the ocean. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through 7 PM this evening for these areas
as seas continue to diminish. Whatever is left of the low opens up
into a trough and slowly drifts NE of the area tonight, allowing
winds to become NW 5-10 kt. Similar winds are expected Thursday into
early Friday. Weak flow then prevails Friday and Friday night with
sea breezes dominating the wind direction in the afternoon.
High pressure builds N of the region (across SE Canada into New
England) this weekend. This will push a backdoor cold front through
the region early Saturday with a N-NE wind surge spreading across
the waters Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt are generally
expected but cannot rule out a period of 15-20 kt winds (with higher
gusts) along and just behind the front. Marginal SCAs are possible,
but not expecting anything significant for this time of the year.
This should also bring another increase in the seas, with 4-5 ft
expected at this time. Onshore flow and elevated seas then persists
into next week.
Rip Currents: A High rip risk continues at all beaches today,
becoming moderate everywhere Thursday. A Low risk is expected by
Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
Water levels and tidal anomalies have dropped significantly today
with the decrease in winds and seas. However, nuisance to perhaps
low-end minor flooding is possible along the tidal Rappahannock
and Potomac rivers, as well as the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore (near Bishop`s Head and Crisfield). With all gauges below
minor, feel no need to issue an coastal flood headlines at this
time. Nuisance flooding is forecast to continue in these areas
through early Friday, though water levels will inch down with each
cycle.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...AJB/HET
SHORT TERM...HET/KMC
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion