Doris, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

443
FXUS63 KDVN 080709
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
209 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming conditions will begin today, and continue this work week.
- Rain chances remain very low through this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
High pressure is now drifting east through the Great Lakes early
today. This large high pressure continues to bring dry air and clear
skies to the region, with temperatures at 2 AM falling to the
lower to mid 40s throughout our CWA. Lows are likely to dip to
the upper 30s in a few spots, but generally stall out in the
current range of temperatures.
Today, as south winds return to the region, we will certainly warm
up. The cool start will quickly see a rise well into the 60s by 10
AM, followed by a afternoon high in the mid to upper 70s. Our
warmest readings are expected in western areas, where south winds
will be strongest, and temperatures aloft slightly milder.
High clouds will increase this afternoon and tonight, but remain
thin enough that we should cool off quite a bit tonight. Lows should
reach the upper 40s east to lower 50s central and west tonight, as
the air remains dry, and cloud cover generally not opaque.
An approaching short wave may trigger an area of storms well to our
west, and this could spread thicker clouds over the region after
midnight in our west. With such dry air at lower levels, a dry
forecast will remain place in eastern Iowa until Tuesday.
Tuesday and Tuesday night, this slow moving short wave is expected
to lift into Wisconsin. Moisture remains the major limiting factor
for any rainfall taking place, but with the weak lift, I have
included a low 15-25% chance for rain, especially north in this
period. Cloud cover does look more likely Tuesday, especially north,
resulting in highs a bit cooler than today, in the lower 70s, while
southern areas return to the mid and upper 70s once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Wednesday through Saturday, the southwest flow aloft, southerly
surface flow will continue to warm our region, and highs mid  to
upper 80s will be common in this period, with some lower 90s
possible. Lows at night will continue to show a strong diurnal drop,
but with dew point readings rising to the 60s in this portion of the
forecast, lows are only expected to to fall to the lower to mid 60s.
Any rainfall in this outer period continues to look spotty, and
mainly well west of eastern Iowa. As stated in the prior AFD,
probabilistic NBM shows some probability for 90+ in our forecast
area beginning Thursday but peaking by Saturday at 40 to 50
percent. Even the deterministic NBM now shows some 90 degrees
late this week into the weekend. So while this weekend was cool,
and near record lows, next weekend will be a return to summer
warmth.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
High pressure will drift east tonight and Monday, resulting in
continued VFR/clear conditions, and winds gradually increasing
to 10 to 15 kts, gusting to the low 20s in the afternoon west of
Iowa City to Dubuque. Visibility will be excellent through the
period.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion