Dot, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

250
FXUS64 KFWD 181812
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
112 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected again
  today, with higher chances overnight as a cluster of storms
  moves through.
- Low rain and storm chances will continue this weekend, but a
  stronger storm system may bring better rain chances and slightly
  cooler weather early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/
Similar to the last few days, isolated showers and storms have
developed this afternoon and will continue through the early
evening across portions of North and Central TX. Latest surface
analysis and observations show a weak cold front currently over
our northwestern counties. Given the upper level system is well
north of our area, we`re still expecting a slow progression of the
front the rest of the day. Winds will remain light, so don`t
anticipate any decent cooldown. To the contrary, most of our area
will see west/southwest winds this afternoon which will keep the
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Those locations that see
any rain/storms may see a brief drop in temperatures. Most of the
activity that develops this afternoon will be short-lived and
sparse. The best forcing will remain north of our area across
central and southern Oklahoma. The main hazards with any storm
will be lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. As the front
slowly progresses south tonight into Friday morning, we could see
slightly higher coverage of rain and isolated storms, especially
along the Red River. Based on the latest high-res models, the
best moisture will reside in east/southeast Texas so we expect the
best coverage to be in this area. Afternoon highs will again rise
to the low to mid 90s outside of those locations that see rain or
stay mostly cloudy. Friday night will be fairly quiet and dry
with light winds returning to the south regionwide.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Weekend and Next Week/
The main story of the long-term forecast continues to be the
active weather period expected early next week. The pattern aloft
will support upper level disturbances to dig into the southern
Plains which will not only will result in better rain/storm
chances but also slightly cooler temperatures. As mentioned in
previous discussions, uncertainty remains high on the progression
of these systems. This will also impact the potential for both
severe weather and heavy rain. Latest NBM keeps the average
rainfall totals across our region around 1.5" or less but some of
the reasonable worse case scenarios highlight higher totals
(around 2-4") through mid-week. However, there`s still almost
half of the ensembles that keep the highest rainfall north of our
region. On a positive note, we could see more seasonal
temperatures with highs in the 80s by mid-week.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Concerns...isolated convection this afternoon and evening along with
the potential for light northerly winds.
VFR conditions will continue through the period with passing mid
to high level clouds. Similar to the last few days, isolated
showers and storms have started to develop. Confidence of
thunderstorms developing at or near the vicinity of any of the
North Texas sites is still low-medium, but with the front
approaching the Red River Valley and sufficient instability, we
can`t rule out that potential. Introduced VCTS for the North
Texas sites, but the impacts should be limited given the cells
will be small, the coverage will be fairly sparse, and most of the
activity will be short-lived. The main hazards with any storms
will be lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of any
convection, winds will be light from the south/southwest through
tonight. Winds may eventually veer to the north/northerly Friday
morning as the front gets closer to D10, but speeds will likely
remain less than 10-12kts. Another round of isolated
showers/storm are possible Friday afternoon.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  93  72  92 /  20  20  30   0   5
Waco                93  72  93  70  92 /  10  10  20   0   0
Paris               93  68  90  67  92 /  20  40  40   0   5
Denton              94  69  93  69  92 /  20  20  20   5  10
McKinney            94  70  92  69  92 /  20  30  30   0   5
Dallas              95  74  94  73  94 /  20  20  30   0   5
Terrell             93  70  91  68  91 /  20  20  40   0   5
Corsicana           94  72  92  71  92 /  20  10  30   0   0
Temple              93  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  20   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  68  93  68  94 /  20  20  20   0  20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion