Doylestown, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

442
FXUS63 KMKX 271849
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
149 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible early Sunday morning, particularly over
  the western half of the area.
- Above normal temperatures continue through next week, with slightly
  cooler conditions near Lake Michigan.
- No rain expected through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 151 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Tonight through Sunday night:
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Breezy southwest winds and mostly sunny skies
have allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the low-mid 80s this
afternoon across southern Wisconsin. Still positioned to the west of
the region, 1 PM surface observations place a cold front along an
approximate Stevens Point - Tomah - Harpers Ferry, IA axis. Said
boundary will continue to steadily advance southeast late this
afternoon & evening, crossing all of southern Wisconsin by or just
after midnight. No rain is anticipated during the frontal passage.
Winds will shift out of the north-northwest behind the departing
boundary, with a modestly cooler & much drier Canadian air mass
settling into the area by daybreak Sunday. The drier & slightly
cooler post-frontal air mass will remain entrenched across the
region through Sunday, when high pressure currently over South
Dakota will cross Wisconsin. Fair conditions are thus expected to
continue through the duration of the short term period. Should high
pressure move into the region fast enough overnight, additional
areas of fog development would be possible during the predawn hours
Sunday. It remains uncertain if any of said fog would be dense, with
trends to be monitored through this evening and tonight.
Tonight: Winds will shift out of the north-northwest by midnight as
a cold front departs southern Wisconsin. Said wind shift will advect
a much drier air mass into southern Wisconsin during the predawn
hours. Upstream surface observations suggest that low-mid 40s dew
points will pull into areas along/west of US-151 by daybreak.
Combined with falling surface temperatures in the mid-40s, as well
as arriving high pressure/weakening surface winds, patchy fog thus
can`t be ruled out over the western half of the region late tonight.
Tend to think potential will be curbed further east, where winds
will remain a touch more elevated through daybreak. Will
nevertheless be closely monitoring trends, as any combination of an
earlier cold front exit and/or high pressure arrival could put more
of southern Wisconsin in play for fog.
Quigley
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 151 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Monday through Saturday:
Synopsis: A series of upper ridges will track across the western
Great Lakes this week, helping to maintain dry conditions. General
subsidence through the column will support partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies each day, which will hold high temperatures above normal
through the end of the week. High pressure will settle along the
Ontario-Quebec border Monday night, encouraging a generally easterly
wind shift Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. With winds coming off
Lake Michigan, slightly cooler high temps are thus anticipated near
the lakeshore Tuesday through Thursday. General agreement between
global forecast models continues into the late week period, with an
upper trough forecast to eject into the Northern Plains during the
day on Saturday. How deep & progressive the trough will be, in
addition to whether or not it will pull close enough to support
shower/storm chances across southern Wisconsin, remain uncertain at
this time.
Saturday: Current NBM guidance suggests a return of isolated
showers/storms, with broad areas of 15-20% precip probabilities
depicted across the western third of the area ahead of the
ejecting upper trough. Have maintained these probabilities in
the afternoon forecast update given the length of time between
now & next Saturday, though their realization remains uncertain
given the forecast strength of the antecedent upper ridge across
the western Great Lakes. Ensemble situational awareness tables
show 500 mb height anomalies between 1-2 standard deviations
above early October normals through Sunday, so break down of the
ridge may take longer than currently suggested by certain
global forecast solutions. Thus wouldn`t be surprised to see
mentionable precip probabilities drop off in subsequent
forecasts, but will continue to monitor trends.
Quigley
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 151 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR flight categories prevail this afternoon following earlier day
FG. Expect VFR to continue to prevail through the majority of the
period. Winds have become southwesterly, with occasional gusts to 20
kt possible through sunset. A cold front will cross southern
Wisconsin this evening/tonight, bringing a northwest wind shift to
all terminals after midnight. High pressure will quickly move in
from the west behind the departing surface front during the predawn
hours. If said high arrives prior to sunrise, additional FG
development would be possible Sunday morning. Will be monitoring
trends for possible BR/FG groups through tonight. Any FG/BR will
quickly dissipate Sunday morning, with light/variable surface winds
expected through Sunday afternoon as high pressure continues to move
east across southern Wisconsin.
Quigley
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 151 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cold front is centered over western Wisconsin this afternoon. The
front will cross Lake Michigan tonight, resulting in a northerly
wind shift over the waters near/after midnight. Currently positioned
over the northern Great Plains, 1018 mb high pressure will cross
Lake Michigan Sunday morning, with winds becoming light and variable
by the afternoon hours. Light and variable winds will continue
through Monday. East-northeast winds will become established Monday
night through Tuesday as 1030 mb high pressure builds into the
Hudson Bay. Winds will become breezy Wednesday. Winds will shift out
of the south-southeast Thursday through Friday as 1004 mb low
pressure develops over the northern Great Plains.
Breezy southwest winds will shift out of the north in nearshore
zones tonight as a cold front crosses Lake Michigan. Gusts may
briefly approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds during the frontal
passage, though conditions aren`t expected to be widespread or long-
lasting enough to warrant headlines. Trends will nevertheless be
monitored. High pressure will move in from the west Sunday morning,
bringing light and variable winds through Monday. East-northeast
winds will become established through the middle part of the week,
ultimately turning south-southeasterly through the late week time
frame. Wave heights may approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with trends being
monitored over coming forecasts.
Quigley
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion