Dragoon, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

702
FXUS65 KTWC 201517
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
817 AM MST Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Ample moisture across the region will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through
early next week. Temperatures near normal this weekend with warm
and dry air returning late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Sunny skies this mid to late September morning with some
dissipating fog near the Willcox Playa. While there is enough
moisture in place and daytime heating will be adequate, there is
not a substantial lifting mechanism for thunderstorm development
today. There is only about a 15-20% chance for showers and
thunderstorms and they will be focused near the International
Border. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday with highs in the upper 90s in the lower elevations and
in the mid 60s to 70s in the higher elevations. Most of southern
Arizona will be in Minor HeatRisk with Moderate HeatRisk for areas
Tucson westward.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 109 AM MST Sat Sep 20 2025/
.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern this morning is defined by SW-NE
orientated trough of low pressure off the central California
coastline and a subtropical high centered over the southern Baja.
The latest GOES precipitable water imagery indicated slightly
drier values across Southeast Arizona compared to 24-hours ago,
with readings between 1.30-1.40 across central and western Pima
county, to around 1.25 inches over the Tucson Metro Area and
between 1.00 and 1.10 inches across Graham, Greenlee and Cochise
counties. With the lack of a lifting mechanism aloft today,
thunderstorms development is going to have to rely on two of the
three ingredients necessary...the residual moisture present across
the area and instability due to surface heating. Given this, I
would anticipate a low-grade Monsoon day across Southeast Arizona
with generally isolated thunderstorm coverage.
Things begin to change Sunday and especially Monday as the upper
low off the coast of central California moves SE to just off the
California Bight Sunday afternoon. As this feature nears Sunday,
we will see a diffluent field aloft move across Arizona assisting
thunderstorm development with the added lifting mechanism. Monday,
we will see better lift across Southeast Arizona as a strong vort
lobe rotates along the base of the upper low and the feature
begins to shift into a neutral orientation. Lower confidence still
with regards to what happened next. In general, the upper low
begins to eject into the Great Basin. Depending on the path of
this feature, drier air will advect into our neck of the woods as
we move through the second half of next week. If the mid-level
moisture gradient is strong enough Thursday, we may see some
strong to severe storms develop with the enhanced entrainment of
drier air into the mid-levels of the storms that develop. As I
mentioned earlier, its hard to hang my hat onto specifics given
the uncertainty in the evolution.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 21/12Z. SKC through 20/19Z, then SCT-BKN
clouds 6k-10k ft AGL and a BKN layer 12k-15k ft AGL thru the
valid period. Isolated -TSRA this afternoon into the early
evening with gusty and erratic winds to around 35 kts possible
near thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, SFC winds mainly
less than 12 kts, favoring WLY direction in afternoon hours and
ELY/SELY overnight and morning hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Ample moisture will be present across Southeast
Arizona to result in generally isolated thunderstorms today.
Scattered storm coverage is expected to return Sunday and Monday.
Minimum RH values between 20-40 percent through Monday. Dry
conditions return later next week especially west of Tucson.
20-foot winds will be westerly 8-12 mph with some afternoon/early
evening gusts to around 20 mph. Breezy southwest winds 10 to20 mph
will be possible Thursday and Friday of next week.
&&
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Malarkey
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion