Dublin, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

176
FXUS64 KMEG 012337 AAA
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper
  80s to near 90 degrees through Thursday and the mid to upper 80s
  Friday into early next week.
- A low chance for showers will return to the region early next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. Some
afternoon cumulus development could produce a stray shower or two
near the Tennessee River and into northeast Mississippi later
this afternoon. A weak 850 mb moisture transport signal exists,
but given the persistent high pressure, it`s unlikely any rain
will reach the surface. In the event that it does, very little
accumulation is expected. This moisture transport is also
responsible for the warmer feel today, with temperatures in the
upper 80s and lower 90s, and mid to upper 60s dewpoints.
Little change is expected to take place until Friday as high
pressure weakens and inches toward the Mid-Atlantic region.
Temperatures will still remain warm and above normal for October
(in the mid 80s), but the probabilities of temperatures nearing
90 degrees will remain less than 30%. The main highlight of this
forecast includes increasing rain chances on Monday. The
potential for an upper level low to form near the Texas and
Louisiana coast would be our brief rain maker to start the work
week. PoPs remain low (less than 30%) due to model disagreement
and very dry air aloft. Nonetheless, the increase of moisture is
enough to continue to include rain chances and continue to
monitor for potential low pressure development.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Cumulus field and isolated SHRA near TUP should dissipate after
sunset, leaving clear skies and light E/NE winds across the Midsouth.
Cumulus development will be limited on Thursday, due to a drier
boundary layer and the presence of an upper level ridge axis.
Post-sunrise winds will veer to the southeast, while remaining
light.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Light winds combined with RH values above 40% continue to keep
fire weather conditions minimal. Continued dryness will degrade
fuel moisture and fire danger will be on the rise through early
next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion