Duck Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

989
FXUS62 KKEY 021540
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1140 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The environment surrounding the Florida Keys is transitioning back
to a more seasonal state as high pressure along the Eastern
Seaboard settles in. GOES-19 visible imagery notes northeast to
east breezes accelerating across the Florida Peninsula while a
lazy convergence boundary drifts southwest through our waters.
Along this boundary, KBYX radar detects a handful of isolated
showers along with an embedded thunderstorm or two. Variable
breezes from earlier this morning quickly transitioned to gentle
north to northeast breezes as the previously mentioned convergence
boundary marched over. Mostly clear skies now persist over the
island chain as temperatures report in the mid 80s with dewpoints
persisting in the mid to upper 70s.
While some pockets of dry air remain in our CWA, the overall
thermodynamic profile has moistened up from last night. This
morning`s KKEY 12z sounding measured a PW increase of about a
tenth of an inch from last night nosing the value above the 25th
percentile for the day. While this does not sound all that
impressive, northeasterly low level winds will help pull in
residual moisture left behind by now Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda
over the Florida Peninsula and Bahamas. This flow may also pull
in showers that develop on mainland Florida into our eastern
waters later today. Opted to hold a chance of showers for the day
keeping us near normal for this time of year. As high pressure
along the Eastern Seaboard continues to extend south, winds will
continue to freshen out of the northeast overnight. Accelerating
flow along with the promise of more moisture will keep chance PoPs
into tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high
pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will
maintain a northeast wind across our waters today. This high will
begin moving into the western North Atlantic later today and into
the overnight and gradually build. This will lead to freshening
northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then
briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming
weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period
of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VRF conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While
stray showers cannot be ruled out, high uncertainty in exact
timing and location will leave mention out of either TAF for now.
Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  40
Marathon  87  77  85  77 /  30  30  40  40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM
Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion