Durham, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

242
FXUS64 KTSA 161735
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Above average temperatures continue today and Wednesday with
   low to medium /10-40 percent/ shower/storm chances each
   afternoon.
-  Weak frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end
   of the week bringing increasing rain chances and slightly
   cooler temperatures
- At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend
   as various disturbances move nearby the local region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Similar to previous days, increasing coverage of showers and
storms is expected this afternoon. Better coverage is forecast
across western Arkansas, but the whole area will see chances for
isolated convection during the afternoon hours today. Severe
chances remain low, but a couple of strong storms could occur,
with gusty downburst winds and brief heavy downpours. Temperatures
this afternoon will also be similar to previous days, with highs
topping out in the low to mid 90s across the region. Persistence
continues this evening and overnight, with diminishing rain
chances after sunset and mild overnight lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A bit of a pattern change begins on Wednesday as a broad upper
low begins to drop south over the Northern and Central Plains and
become "cutoff" from the main jet activity to the north in
Canada. This low will meander over the Plains for the next several
days and force a weak cold front into the region by late
Wednesday into Thursday as a wave rotates around the parent upper
low. Temperatures and rain chances are expected to be similar on
Wednesday afternoon as has been the case for the past several
days, with a possible uptick in chances near the OK/KS border as
the frontal boundary approaches.
More widespread convection is expected to spread from north to
south from late Wednesday night through Thursday night as the
influence of the surface boundary and upper level disturbance
becomes more focused over the area. Thursday looks to be the
coolest day of the week as more cloud cover and precip will be
noted throughout the day. Highs will likely stay in the low to mid
80s during the afternoon, with some 70s possible where rain
lingers for much of the day. The weak front/outflow will
gradually wash out/lose definition by Friday, though continued
cloud cover and at least scattered rain chances will help keep
temps slightly cooler but still near to above normal for mid
September.
Unsettled weather continues through the weekend as upper level
troughing remains in the vicinity and plentiful moisture remains
entrenched through the Southern Plains. It won`t rain at all
times, but at least low chances for showers and storms are
forecast everyday through the period. Guidance has come into
better agreement with a more notable storm system and potentially
stronger cold front affecting the area early next week, but timing
and evolution remain in flux at this range.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Isolated to widely scattered convection is forecast again this
afternoon into early evening for the CWA, with the greater
potential across northwest Arkansas. Thus, will continue with
Prob30 groups for timing for northwest Arkansas TAF sites and hold
off on mentioning in eastern Oklahoma TAF sites due to uncertainty
of coverage impacting any one terminal. Gusty to locally strong
winds and a brief heavy rain threat are possible within any
thunderstorm development. Additional shower/storm chances return
at the end of the period with higher chances just outside this
period. Cloud cover through the period should remain mostly
scattered/broken high clouds with periods of mid clouds this
afternoon. Early morning Wednesday a period of IFR/MVFR visibility
looks to again develop for KFYV and KBVO, and have added tempo
groups for timing. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  92  69  84 /  20  20  30  50
FSM   70  94  69  90 /  20  20  10  30
MLC   67  93  68  89 /  20  20  10  50
BVO   64  90  65  84 /  20  20  40  60
FYV   64  91  64  87 /  20  20  10  40
BYV   65  91  65  87 /  20  20  10  40
MKO   67  92  68  87 /  20  20  20  40
MIO   66  91  66  84 /  20  20  30  50
F10   67  92  67  87 /  20  20  20  50
HHW   68  91  68  90 /  20  20  10  30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion