Eckhart Mines, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

836
FXUS61 KLWX 161958
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
358 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift northwestward toward the area
through Wednesday, before weakening and departing off toward the
northeast on Thursday. Thereafter, high pressure will build in
and remain in control through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong area of low pressure continues to circulate just off
the VA/NC coast this afternoon. As we progress through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, this area of low
pressure will slowly drift northwestward, becoming centered over
the Tidewater of Virginia by late tonight. Rain is
overspreading the area from west to east this afternoon as the
system slowly moves closer. Rain is currently impacting
locations to the east of Route 15. This activity will continue
to expand westward moving into the evening, becoming more
showery in nature as it reaches the I-81 corridor. Showers will
continue on and off through the night across the entire area,
with the coverage and frequency of showers being the greatest
across southern Maryland, where they`ll be closest to the area
of low pressure. Thunderstorms may be possible at times across
Southern Maryland later this evening into the overnight as
elevated instability begins to work in from the southeast. Some
heavier downpours may be possible late tonight across Southern
Maryland as a result. Winds will remain gusty out of the
northeast this afternoon through tonight, with gusts of 20-30
mph possible at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned area of low pressure will continue to linger
across southeastern Virginia through the day tomorrow. Showers
will remain possible on and off through the day, although the
bulk of the time should remain dry. Most guidance suggests that
a weak surface boundary will extend from the area of low
pressure northeastward across Southern Maryland. Some CAMs hint
that thunderstorms may form in the vicinity of this boundary
tomorrow afternoon. Model soundings in that area show deep
saturated profiles, with weak surface based instability,
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches, and relatively
weak steering flow. As a result, any thunderstorms that do form
may be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and a low-end threat
for flooding exists. With ongoing drought, it would likely take
several inches of rainfall in a short time period to cause
issues. Elsewhere, low clouds will persist through most, if not
all of the day, helping to keep temperatures below normal. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and low 70s for most.
Showers will wind down tomorrow evening, leading to dry
conditions during the second half of the night.
The surface low and a parent upper trough will both weaken and
lift off to our northeast on Thursday. This will enable high
pressure to start to build in at the surface. Skies are expected
to trend toward mostly sunny during the afternoon hours
following a mostly cloudy start to the day. High temperatures
are forecast to reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level troughing pivoting north of New England on Friday will
move offshore ahead of deep upper trough approaching the region from
the central CONUS. At the surface, a moisture starved cold front is
forecast to drop through the forecast area on Friday. While no
precipitation is expected with the frontal passage, temperatures
will be noticeably cooler in the wake of the front. High temperatures
on Friday will be in the 80s for most (70s mtns). In the wake of the
front, highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s for most.
Precipitation chances return Monday as the aforementioned front
lifts north through the area as warm front. Temperatures will
gradually warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s (60s mtns). A lack
of moisture with the front will limit precipitation chances to 20%
or less across the southern portions of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions are VFR this afternoon, but ceilings will gradually
drop to MVFR and then eventually IFR later tonight. Ceilings
will likely stay IFR through much of the day tomorrow, but may
potentially climb back up to low-end MVFR conditions for a few
hours tomorrow afternoon. Showers will occur on and off through
the day tomorrow. Conditions should then drop back to IFR
tomorrow night. Improvement back to VFR conditions is expected
on Thursday.
Winds will be out of the northeast today, and may gust to around
20-30 knots at times. Winds will remain out of the northeast
tonight, before turning out of the north tomorrow, and then
northwest on Thursday.
Northwest winds on Friday shift to east/northeast overnight into
Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving through the area. No
precipitation and VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
both days.
&&
.MARINE...
A coastal low currently located just offshore of NC/VA will
slowly drift northwestward tonight into tomorrow, leading to
increasing northeast winds. Gale Warnings remain in effect for
the lower Tidal Potomac and middle Bay through 2 AM, and Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect elsewhere through tonight.
SCAs may need to be extended through the day tomorrow in
northerly flow. Sub-SCA level northwesterly winds are expected
on Thursday.
Northwest winds over the waters on Friday shift to east/northeast on
Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving over the waters. Winds
remain below SCA criteria on Friday before increasing to right below
SCA criteria winds on Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore winds increase through this afternoon as high pressure
builds to the north and low pressure deepens off the North
Carolina/Virgina coast. Minor coastal flooding appears likely
later tonight, and potentially again Wednesday night. There
could be a snapback tide sometime later this week when winds
slacken and the coastal low dissipates.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion