Effie, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

195
FXUS64 KMEG 171726
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue this
  afternoon over north Mississippi and south of I-40 in east
  Arkansas.
- Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s this
  weekend.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also
  raises wildland fire concerns through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Summer-like weather continues today with pleasant conditions
throughout the Mid-South. The upper high pressure system
responsible for this pattern also continues to reside throughout
the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, squeezed between two upper lows.
As such, today is expected to be warm as highs reach up towards
the mid 90s throughout the entire region. Surface dewpoints,
currently in the mid 60s, will mix down through the day, keeping
heat indices below 100 F. Morning soundings from LZK and OHX place
the region between a 700 mb warm nose (OHX) and fairly steep mid
level lapse rates (LZK). Given ample surface heating, this lends
some confidence to some isolated afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, especially across northern MS where dew points will
remain higher. Any convection will dissipate quickly after
sunset.
A similar forecast remains through the rest of the week. The
trough to our east, will continue to meander around the VA/MD
coastline through the weekend. At the same time, the trough across
the northern Plains will gradually weaken while in a rex block
pattern. This effectively locks the Mid-South into a low-amplitude
high pressure system, which leads to the aforementioned
persistent forecast. Highs will be in the 90s with low (

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion