Elberta, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS63 KAPX 221739
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms possible at times through Thursday. A
few stronger storms not out of the question, primarily this afternoon
and again Tuesday afternoon.
- Fog potential again tonight. Fog could be dense with significantly
reduced visibilities.
- Seasonable temperatures through much of this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Slow-moving upper trough axis continues
to be centered upstream over the western UP/northern WI. Latest
trends support this axis slowly sliding eastward to near/just north
of the eastern U.P. through the day Tuesday. Subtle shortwave
perturbation(s) rounding the base of this trough at times may aid in
additional shower/storm development this afternoon, overnight and
into the day on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak nearly stationary
boundary remains draped across northern lower this afternoon through
at least tonight before slow southward progress is expected to be
realized during the day Tuesday.
Forecast Details: Primary focus through early this week revolves
around shower/storm chances this afternoon through Tuesday and
potential for another round of dense fog tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms chances continue to spread
across the forecast area this afternoon -- initially driven by
incoming convectively aided shortwave energy and outflow associated
with decaying MCS across Lake Michigan. Latest near-term trends
suggest these storms, potentially upticking a bit intensity, cross
northern MI west to east over the next several hours. Additional
development potentially driven by northeast lower inland penetrating
lake breeze with any of this activity focused over sections of
northeast lower. Additional energy may round the base of parent
troughing tonight, continuing shower/storm chances across parts of
the area.
Not entirely out of the question that if storms can realize an
uptick in intensity that low-end potential for a strong to severe
storm exists. This given support by near-term trends suggesting at
least pockets of MLCAPE near 750-1,000 J/kg, decent mid-level
southwesterlies and deep layer bulk shear on the order of 25-30 kts.
Locally heavy rain and a damaging wind gust or two appears to be the
most likely threat, but an instance of large hail can`t be ruled out
as well.
For Tuesday, not really a whole lot of change anticipated. Decent
probabilities for diurnally driven instability to climb back to near
1,000 J/kg during the afternoon. Shower/storm potential may wind up
more purely lake breeze boundary driven than today, but given
similar bulk shear values and potential for a rogue strong-severe
storm exists once again.
Fog potential tonight: Another round of widespread, potentially
dense, fog and stratus is expected to develop given lingering low-
level moisture and cool temps. HREF/NBM probs supportive of this
with 40-70% probs for 

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion