Elberta, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

120
FXUS63 KAPX 211043
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers & thunderstorms today and tonight, locally heavy downpours
  and an isolated instance of gusty winds the primary concern.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into early this week.
- Seasonable temperatures through much of this week; keeping an eye
  on a system to the south later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Trough continues to move eastward through the day today, with height
falls, abundant moisture, and an embedded short wave this
afternoon into the early portions of tonight. Lift will be aided
by a jet streak aloft late this afternoon and into tonight.
Thus, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue/will
develop today and tonight, especially this afternoon and into
the early portions of the overnight.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Current observational data shows two separate areas of rain (one
across N lake MI and one moving into the interior) moving
northward. Plenty of diffluent/divergent flow is aiding this
feature due to an upper low across WI with an additional vort
max to the southeast across northwest lower. These areas/bands
of precipitation will be ongoing early this morning across
northern MI before moving eastward.
The trough continues to move eastward with height falls through
the day and into tonight, along with an approaching jet streak
later in the day and into tonight. Thus, showers and
thunderstorms are expected at various times today and tonight
within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment.
Moisture remains quite anomalous for this time of year, with PW
values ~1.3-1.5, above the 90th percentile for this day and
approaching the daily max values (SPC Sounding Climo). Thus, any
more robust convection that is able to materialize today will
have the potential to produce heavy downpours, the main hazard with
todays activity. That being said, trends continue to indicate the
instability will be rather meager this afternoon (due in part to the
ongoing rain band and cloud coverage that will continue into this
morning) which may impact storm coverage today. Nevertheless, SPC
does have north-central and northeast lower MI in a Marginal Risk
for severe weather for a gusty thunderstorm or two.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday):
Upper trough hangs back and slowly meanders eastward and begins to
sag southward Monday into Tuesday. Thus, continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms, looks like the best potential/coverage
Monday and Monday evening. Thermodynamic environment both days will
feature modest instability, with modest wind shear on Monday. PWs
remain elevated as well, esp Monday, with values over an inch which
continues to be above normal for this time of year. Consequently,
main concern with any thunderstorm activity will be heavy downpours
and perhaps an isolated instance of gusty winds. Temperatures will
be seasonable warm as well (low to mid 70s).
Days 4-7 (Wednesday - Saturday):
Still watching the interaction between an upper low across the mid
section of the nation and building positive upper height anomalies
across the northern portion of the county and into Canada. ENS means
still suggest the toughing ends up across the southeast, largely
suppressing the more robust and widespread precipitation well to the
south of northern MI. There could still be a chance for a couple of
light showers during this time frame, especially mid week as energy
aloft to the north tries to shift southward and coagulate to some
extent, and/or lingers across northern MI. We`ll just have to fine
tune the details of the exact upper level pattern in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Will continue to contend with areas of SHRA and embedded TSRA
through the daytime hours today at all TAF sites. CIGs set to
largely remain VFR, with the exception of CIU, which will see a
lower deck of clouds build in throughout the day. In addition, if a
heavier SHRA or TSRA manages to move over a TAF site, that could
lead to temporary reductions to MVFR. A deck of lower cloud will
move in near and after sunset from southwest to northeast at all
sites, resulting in CIGs likely dropping to MVFR with time across
the board. Later tonight, there is potential for IFR to develop with
this area of lower clouds as well.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion