Elbing, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

389
FXUS63 KICT 060849
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms continue today, tonight, and into Tuesday; best
  chances (30-70%) across central and south-central KS
- Below normal temperatures arrive early next week; warming
  trend for the second half of this week/weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
As of 345 AM Monday, broad southwesterly midlevel flow remains
across the Plains with ridging across the eastern CONUS and
troughing across the western state. A shortwave trough across
southern Ontario continues to slowly shunt a surface cold front
through the state. At this hour, the front extends from the OK
Panhandle through Great Bend, Salina, Manhattan, northeast from
there. Broad low-level WAA across the frontal zone continues to
produce scattered showers and storms with the bulk of activity post-
frontal. As this frontal zone sags south through the day today,
shower and storm chances (30-70%) will extend south as well. The
best chances will remain across central and south-central KS. This
WAA pattern will remain in-place tonight into Tuesday with continued
chances for showers and storms. Instability will remain 500 J/kg or
less, greatly limiting the potential for any strong or severe
weather. As far as temperatures go, much cooler air is filtering in
behind the front with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s
and 60s across central KS to the mid 80s across southeast KS (where
dry conditions are expected). Lows tonight will range from the upper
40s across central KS to near 60 across southeast KS.
The frontal zone will exit the area to the southeast late tonight
with post-frontal temperatures impacting the entire forecast area by
Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid-60s across central KS to the
lower 70s across southeast KS. Surface ridging will settle into the
area by mid-week with seasonable temperatures and light winds.
Midlevel ridging will build across the central/southern Plains for
the second half of the week and next weekend, which will likely
result in a warming trends with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once
again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue across central KS along a
strong cold front. This front and axis of showers and storms
will gradually shift south and southeast through the overnight
hours into Monday. MVFR to IFR CIGS will overspread the
terminals behind the frontal zone throughout the day Monday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CDJ

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion