Elk Point, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

245
FXUS65 KREV 291842
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1142 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a few
  becoming strong to severe.
* Increasing winds may result in impacts to recreation and travel
  each afternoon through midweek.
* Cooler, unsettled weather prevails through much of the week, and
  possibly over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today:
* Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a wide swath of
  moisture moving into the area today. There is already a band of
  showers approaching the Sacramento valley. As today progresses,
  that band will move into our area. Ahead of the band of showers,
  expect gusty winds up to 30-40 mph. As such, a Lake Wind
  Advisory has been issued for Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake until 8
  PM tonight. Please see the product for more details.
* Said band of showers may bring some rain to the Sierra Front
  this afternoon between 2-6 PM today. However, any showers will
  be light but we can`t rule out a lightning strike or two. The
  front will kick off convection across W NV Basin and Range this
  afternoon, starting as early as noon and continuing until a
  little after sunset.
* Current model soundings show 600-800 J/kg of DCAPE, and combined
  with 300-600 J/kg of CAPE from model soundings out in Fallon and
  Lovelock, the atmosphere is primed for strong to severe
  thunderstorms. Furthermore, pockets of diffluence aloft are
  centered along west central NV. The 12Z sounding out of Reno
  this morning recorded 0.6" of PWAT, which is at the 90th
  percentile. Much of the area is under a Marginal Risk (5-15%)
  for excessive rainfall today, per the Weather Prediction Center.
  However, we`re expecting storms to be fast-moving, so while
  there may be brief heavy downpours, the risk of flooding is
  lesser. Besides this, threats today will include gusty outflow
  winds up to 45 mph (outside of gusts ahead of the frontal
  passage), up to 1" sized hail, and blowing dust.
Tuesday:
* Showery conditions are expected to continue Tuesday, though any
  accumulations will be light. This is due to a secondary frontal
  passage moving through the area. Shower chances (15-45%) are
  primarily confined along the Sierra and in NE CA as of now.
* Wind gusts will continue to be elevated tomorrow, with gusts up
  to 35 mph across much of the area. The highest wind gusts will
  be found along the OR border and in northern Washoe county.
* With afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s across the area
  tomorrow (up to mid 70s for W NV Basin and Range communities),
  the first taste of true sweater weather will be upon us.
Wednesday and beyond:
* Chances for showers (15-45%) are expected to continue each day
  through at least Thursday. Continuing with the theme though, any
  accumulations will be light. Wind gusts will be lighter,
  dropping back to our typical afternoon gusts up to 25 mph.
  Afternoon highs will continue to be fall-like while overnight
  lows start to dip towards freezing for typical cold valleys
  along the Sierra.
-Giralte
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms, and increasing winds will be the main
weather concerns today as strong low pressure moves through the
region. While the best odds will stay east of region TAF sites (40-
70% odds at KNFL and KLOL), there is at least a 30-50% chance and
14-25% chance of shower and t-storm impacts at KTRK-KTVL and
KRNO-KCXP-KMEV, respectively. Thunderstorms will be capable of
brief downpours and MVFR conditions, strong outflow winds, small
hail, and frequent lightning.
S/SW surface gusts increase to 20-30 kts amid amplifying SW FL100
winds to 35-45 kts this afternoon and evening. This will likely pose
some LLWS and mountain wave turbulence for Tahoe and western Nevada
terminals, especially after 03Z when surface winds weaken.
-Giralte/Salas
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion