Ellicott, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS61 KLWX 051353
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
953 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will progress offshore this afternoon. A strong
cold front will move through during the middle of the week. High
pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface will shift offshore this afternoon,
causing winds to turn light out of the south. Temperatures will
rebound rapidly after a cool start, with most locations reaching
into the lower 80s.
Skies will remain clear tonight and winds will go calm, which
should allow for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures
will quickly drop to the dewpoints, which should be a few
degrees higher than preceding nights. Low temperatures overnight
should be in the 50s for most. Patchy fog will be possible again
during the second half of the night. Current guidance suggests
that the highest areal coverage of that fog will likely be to
the east of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
High pressure will remain in place offshore tomorrow, while
upper ridging holds strong aloft. Any residual fog will quickly
burn off after sunrise Monday morning. Mostly sunny skies and
light winds are forecast on Monday, with temperatures climbing
into upper 70s to mid 80s. Skies will stay mostly clear Monday
night, but southerly winds should prevent fog formation outside
of the more sheltered valleys. Lows Monday night will generally
be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Heights will begin to fall on Tuesday as an upper trough and
associated cold front at the surface begin to approach from the
northwest. Clouds will be on the increase through the day, but
showers will likely hold off until after dark for much of the
area. The exception may be across the Alleghenies and Potomac
Highlands, where showers may move in during the afternoon
hours. Showers appear likely for all locations overnight. The
system`s cold front will start to move through during the
second half of the night, and will likely bisect the area by
daybreak on Wednesday. With the rain and cloud cover present,
temperatures will remain mild Tuesday night, with lows in the
60s for most.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough passing to the north of the region late
Tuesday into Wednesday will drive a cold front through the region.
Showers will overspread the region late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Most model guidance has the majority of the region
receiving measurable precipitation by early Wednesday afternoon with
the potential for rain totals over an inch depending on the model
solution. Elevated instability could lead to a few thunderstorms
especially over the northern half of the region. Highest rain totals
will likely occur within any thunderstorms that form in the region
early on Wednesday. Flooding is not likely as rain will be
beneficial in nature as the region remains in moderate to severe
drought conditions.
Behind the frontal passage, a Canadian high pressure system
will usher in a cooler and drier air mass over the region
through the remainder of the week. Below normal temperatures
will return through Friday with high temperatures likely to
hover in the 60s to lower 70s with overnight lows in the 40s.
Within some of the sheltered valleys overnight temperatures
could approach freezing, with patchy frost possible.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions and light southerly winds are expected this
afternoon. Winds will go calm again tonight, and fog may form
again during the late night hours. Guidance is a bit more
bullish on the fog formation to the east of the Blue Ridge
tonight (Sunday night), and some models even hint at some very
low clouds forming. For now, this potential has been hinted at
in the TAFs with MVFR fog and and a FEW005 group. Currently it
appears to be more of a fog than low cloud setup, but that will
be something to monitor moving forward. Much like today, any fog
will burn off quickly after sunrise Monday morning.
VFR conditions are expected during the day Monday. Strengthening
southerly winds will likely limit fog formation Monday night.
VFR conditions will prevail during the daylight hours Tuesday,
but sub-VFR conditions may be possible Tuesday night as rain
moves in and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
SubVFR conditions will be possible on Wednesday due to showers and
storms. A cold front will bring a wind shift from south to northwest
on Wednesday. VFR conditions should return for Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
As high pressure progresses offshore, winds should remain southerly
over the waters through Tuesday. These winds should remain sub-SCA
level in nature this afternoon through much of the day tomorrow.
Winds may briefly near low-end SCA levels within channeled
southerly flow Monday evening. A more prolonged period of low-
end SCA level winds within southerly flow appears possible on
Tuesday. A cold front will move over the waters Tuesday night,
causing winds to turn out of the northwest late Tuesday night or
Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory level winds will be possible behind a frontal
passage Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies at Annapolis remain somewhat elevated, so the
higher of the two high tide cycles each day will continue to
reach Action stage in the coming days. No flooding is forecast
anywhere for the foreseeable future.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KLW/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KLW/KJP/JMG
MARINE...KLW/KJP/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion