Elmore Park, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS64 KMEG 261624
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Drier and cooler air will filter in resulting in pleasant
  conditions this weekend.
- Highs will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s through Saturday,
  gradually warming into the upper 80s by next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
All is clear and calm across the Mid-South in the wake of high
pressure behind a cold front. With relatively strong CAA in place,
today looks like the coolest day of the forecast period until at
least the end of next week. Highs will be seasonably comfortable
for early fall around 80 degrees with low humidity and plenty of
sunshine. The upper level pattern will begin to modulate into an
Omega Block over the central CONUS this weekend, ushering in a
gradual warming trend. By Monday, an amplified ridge will be in
place over the Mid-South. This will bring our temperatures above
normal into the upper 80s to begin the work week.
Moving into the work week, the ridge looks to remain firmly in
place through at least Wednesday, thus keeping temperatures above
normal. On the bright side, dewpoints and resultant humidity look
low enough that the temperature and heat index shouldn`t be off by
more than a degree or two each day through midweek. There is some
medium range uncertainty given the track of what is currently
Invest AL94 in the Atlantic. If this storm favors the solution
most heavily weighted by the ENS (ECMWF ensemble), remnants of
this tropical depression may be steered westward enough to add
some sporadic showers to an otherwise dry forecast on Wednesday
and Thursday. Regardless, by Thursday night, the upper level
pattern begins to deamplify and become more zonal. This will allow
textbook climatologically cool and dry October air to filter in.
As such, temperatures will cool down and PoPs will remain dry
(

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion