Emmett, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

907
FXUS65 KBOI 302044
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
244 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Showers will
continue over higher terrain through tonight, with scattered
thunderstorms through the evening in Idaho north of the Snake
Basin. A cold front along the coast this afternoon will weaken
as it comes inland tonight but will still be strong enough to
support showers in our northern areas through the night.
Valleys will stay moist enough for patchy fog in the
mornings. Fewer showers are expected Wednesday through
Thursday morning, but more showers are forecast later
Thursday along a band extending from around Stanley/ID -
Mountain Home - Winnemucca/NV. That band will become a new
cold front Thursday night, and models show rain increasing
along the front through Friday morning as it shifts slowly
southeastward. Several models are already predicting .50 to
1.00 inch of rain Thursday night extending from Owyhee County
through the western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie.
Temperatures through Thursday night will be near normal, and
no significant winds are forecast except near thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The upper-level low that
has been sitting off the coast of British Columbia will begin
to dig into the Pacific Northwest early Friday morning. Ahead of
this low, a cold front will cross over our area before moving
slowly southeastward Friday morning/afternoon. With ample
moisture (ensemble mean PWs around an inch) and forcing
available, it continues to look like the front will be over
Magic Valley on Friday. Model ensembles continue to show a
strong signal, with the GFS and Euro ensembles dialed in to
0.25-0.50 inches of rain falling over the western Magic Valley
Friday. This signal has remained consistent across multiple run
times. However, given the rather localized feature providing the
necessary lift, some uncertainty remains in the exact location.
As a result holding on to increased precipitation chances east
of a line from Frenchglen to McCall throughout the day on
Friday. Breezy winds will accompany this front, with the
strongest gusts (around 25mph) in the typical trouble spots
of the Snake Plain and Baker County.
Beyond Friday, most ensemble members favor another shortwave
trough pushing through the region before breaking off into a
low over California. The initial passage of the shortwave will
allow isolated showers to develop over the Central Idaho
Mountains Sunday afternoon. While the ensemble consensus keeps
our area dry with the location of the low, it is worth noting
that 23% of the ensemble members (mostly comprised of GFS
members) keep it closer to our area and bring some precipitation.
However, given the consensus, have left the forecast dry.
Temperatures will take on a cooling trend, reaching around 10
degrees below normal by Sunday, before warming to around 5
degrees below normal come Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
ongoing and expected to continue and increase in coverage through
the afternoon and evening. Thunder capable of producing outflows of
30 kt, heavy rain, and small hail. MVFR/IFR conditions and mountain
obscuration in showers/thunderstorms. Surface winds: SE-SW 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt in e-Oregon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-
30 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Showers/thunderstorms this afternoon with a 40-50%
chance of affecting the terminal from Tue/21z to Wed/00z.
Thunderstorms capable of 30 kt outflows, heavy rain, and small hail
resulting in possible MVFR conditions and mtn obscuration. Surface
winds: S-SE 10-15 kt this afternoon, becoming variable under 10 kt
after sunset.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion