177 FXUS63 KDTX 191156 AFDDTXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 756 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry today and most of tomorrow, with a low chance for showers starting late tomorrow night.
- Warmer Sunday with likely shower and storm chances, then cooler and wetter Monday and Tuesday.
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.AVIATION...
Shallow cold advection in the wake of a weak cold front has brought VFR to MVFR ceilings to Southeast Michigan this morning. Higher surface based humidity has also brought patches of reduced visibilities to some locations. VFR ceilings are expected throughout the day with dry conditions.
For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the TAF period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
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.PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
DISCUSSION...
For this morning... The combination of prior day precipitation through the Tri-Cities and portions of the Thumb, coupled with weak moisture advection from Lake Huron with the light northeasterly flow, has brought a combination of low stratus and variable fog for these aforementioned locations. Some continued expansion of the above will be possible through the southern portions of the cwa fueled more by the calmer winds and radiational cooling. Daytime heating through the late morning and afternoon hours will aid in lifting ceilings and eventually scouring out cloud cover as an encroaching upper- level low over the Plains reinforces a shortwave ridge across the Great Lakes. This will promote dry weather, outside of a very low (
NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion