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Enion, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

537
FXUS63 KILX 231043
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 543 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog will reduce visibility to a quarter mile or less this morning, especially across portions of east central and southeast Illinois.

- An unsettled weather pattern will result in additional chances for showers and storms through Wednesday. A few isolated pockets of 2 inches of rain will be possible this afternoon and evening in slow moving storms north of I-72. There is a 50-60 percent chance for a more widespread area of 2+ inches of rain south of I-72 late tonight through Wednesday evening.

- A stretch of dry weather returns Friday through at least early next week with temps returning to above normal (highs in the mid 80s).

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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Slow moving upper low that has been anchored over the Great Lakes will continue to result in unsettled weather through at least Thursday across central Illinois.

Elongated upper trough that stretches from the Canadian Maritimes back into the Upper Midwest will make little southward progress today, while at the surface, an attendant trough is expected to inch into the Illinois River Valley this afternoon. A damping H5 shortwave trough is expected to move across the mid Mississippi Valley late this afternoon into the evening, while coupled jet streaks with favorable right entrance and left exit regions will accompany this feature and overspread central Illinois. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent associated with these features will result in the next round of scattered showers and storms moving across central Illinois later today with some additional development along the aforementioned surface boundary. Modest instability is expected across central Illinois with the GFS suggesting only up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE will be present this afternoon. Favorable deep layer shear may be present under the aforementioned jet streaks to our north and areas south of I-72, but weak shear is present in between for much of central IL north of I-72. HREF joint probs for exceeding 500 J/kg CAPE and 30kt deep layer shear peaks around 40-60 percent south I-72 and around 70% south of I-70. This appears to be the area where parameter space is most favorable for severe weather, albeit only marginally so. Where the deep layer shear is much weaker near the Illinois River Valley, slow storm motions are expected with some pockets of locally heavy rain possible. HREF LPMM suggests isolated totals of 2-4 inches of rain will be possible north of I-72.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, main upper trough axis is finally expected to push across central Illinois with a weak surface low tracking across southern Illinois. Strong isentropic ascent will begin to overspread central Illinois ahead of the low Tuesday night and will persist across portions of central Illinois into Wednesday morning. Heavy rain appears possible near the surface low track, but expect a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts across portions of central Illinois on the northern edge of this system. NBM probabilities for exceeding 2 inches of rain in 24 hours ending Wednesday evening peaks south of I-70 in the 50-60 percent range, but drops off to around 20 percent or less north of I-70. NBM 50th percentile QPF for this same time range shows the one inch contour running roughly Taylorville to Terre Haute, and ranges from less than a tenth of an inch near Galesburg to around 2.5 inches near Lawrenceville.

Thursday will be the transition day between the wetter pattern we`ve been under to another stretch of dry and warmer weather as a strong upper ridge builds back across the middle of the country through the weekend and into next week. Thursday will see a few lingering showers in the low level cyclonic flow and weak diurnal instability. Forecast sounding show strong capping around 700mb which will limit the depth of any diurnally favored showers and keep the overall thunder threat low. Dry weather should prevail Friday into early next week, while temps warm back above normal with highs in the mid 80s under the influence of the strong upper ridge.

Deubelbeiss

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.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Early this morning, dense fog is in place across portions of east central Illinois reducing visibility to under a quarter mile at times. Further west, a decaying outflow boundary from earlier storms is pushing east across central Illinois. Visibility has improved in its wake, but confidence is low at SPI/DEC on whether this trend is temporary or if vsby will tank again before sunrise. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will inch towards the region today resulting in light and variable winds much of the day. A few spotty showers and storms are possible near the trough axis this afternoon, mainly at PIA. Otherwise the best chance rain will spread northeast across central Illinois this evening and continue overnight. A few storms will be on the leading edge of the precip. Around this same time, an enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan, or a backdoor cold front, will spread south across the area with a modest NE breeze of 10-12 kt in its wake along with MVFR ceilings.

Deubelbeiss

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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ044>046- 054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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