Exmore, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS61 KAKQ 171836
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure lingers over the area today before moving
offshore by Thursday. A brief warmup is expected by late week
before a return to slightly below normal temperatures this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- The coastal low pressure lingers over the area today bringing
  additional chances for rain, primarily inland.
Morning weather analysis shows the coastal low pressure is now
centered over the Northern Neck progged to move further west
today before moving out of the area by this afternoon/evening.
As the low shifts further inland, the chance of showers
continues, primarily for the inland area north of I-64 and west
of I-95 this morning/early afternoon. While the heavy rain is
over, light to moderate showers are expected to continue with
additional rain amounts up to 1.5" is possible. The low
pressure will weaken early this afternoon with rain chances
decreasing through the day as only a few lingering showers are
possible across the area. Temperatures today will remain cool
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows in the lower
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Improving conditions as the coastal low moves offshore and
  high pressure returns to the area.
By Thursday morning, the low pressure will have moved offshore
allowing for improving conditions throughout the day. A few
lingering showers may be possible on the Eastern Shore in the
morning, but otherwise should be dry. Skies will clear from west to
east as the low moves offshore, which will allow temperatures to
warm back up with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight
lows on Thursday will be in the lower 60s. High pressure will return
to the area on Friday bringing clear skies and warmer temperatures
in the mid 80s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- A front drops southward across the region this weekend, bringing
comfortable temperatures and dry conditions.
- Moisture returns early next week as the front stalls south of the
area.
Strong high pressure over Quebec pushes a cold front south into the
region Saturday. This front is will bring cooler temperatures to the
area, but isn`t strong enough to provide additional showers/storms.
A gradient of high temperatures on Saturday is expected based on the
front but currently looks like the Eastern Shore will be coolest in
the mid 70s with the rest of the FA in the lower 80s. Overnight lows
will remain similar to previous nights in the lower 60s. Sunday will
be the coolest day with highs in the mid 70s. Slight chance of
showers returns early next week as high pressure ridges against the
Appalachia mountains and the surface front stalls near the area.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 152 PM EDT Wednesday...
A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions have been noted across the
area this afternoon. As the weak low pressure over the area
continues to slowly tries to move away it continues to bring
light rain showers/drizzle and lower CIGS. RIC this afternoon
continues to remain the only terminal with IFR conditions as the
light rain/ drizzle move out of the piedmont and over the
terminal. These light showers/drizzle will bring a brief
reduction in visibility. Winds this afternoon have lightened as
the pressure gradient has decreased. Winds this afternoon are
between 5 to 10 kt. Through the late afternoon and into tonight
IFR and LIFR conditions are expected to make its way across all
terminals with reduction in visibility and lower CIGS. CIGS are
expected to drop to LIFR conditions across RIC, PHF, and ORF.
While across SBY and ECG they will remain IFR. With the
drizzle/patchy fog this evening and tonight recent guidance has
visibilities remaining MVFR with the potential of some IFR
visibility possible near RIC. These flight restrictions are
expected to last through the night into tomorrow morning.
Outlook: The coastal low will continue to linger over the area
tonight, then moving offshore Thursday. As the low moves away
from the area, flight conditions should gradually improve
Thursday with dry and VFR conditions returning by Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories for elevated seas are in effect until 7 PM
this evening north of Cape Charles.
- Lighter winds and sub-SCA conditions expected Thursday and Friday.
The low pressure system that brought the strong winds to the area
yesterday has spun down and weakened considerably over
central/eastern VA today. With the low center W of the waters, the
wind direction is generally S-SE and speeds are only around 10 kt.
Earlier Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay were allowed to
expire given the reduction in winds. Seas have also fallen, but
remain 4-6 ft N of Cape Charles in the ocean. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through 7 PM this evening for these areas
as seas continue to diminish. Whatever is left of the low opens up
into a trough and slowly drifts NE of the area tonight, allowing
winds to become NW 5-10 kt. Similar winds are expected Thursday into
early Friday. Weak flow then prevails Friday and Friday night with
sea breezes dominating the wind direction in the afternoon.
High pressure builds N of the region (across SE Canada into New
England) this weekend. This will push a backdoor cold front through
the region early Saturday with a N-NE wind surge spreading across
the waters Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt are generally
expected but cannot rule out a period of 15-20 kt winds (with higher
gusts) along and just behind the front. Marginal SCAs are possible,
but not expecting anything significant for this time of the year.
This should also bring another increase in the seas, with 4-5 ft
expected at this time. Onshore flow and elevated seas then persists
into next week.
Rip Currents: A High rip risk continues at all beaches today,
becoming moderate everywhere Thursday. A Low risk is expected by
Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
Water levels and tidal anomalies have dropped significantly today
with the decrease in winds and seas. However, nuisance to perhaps
low-end minor flooding is possible along the tidal Rappahannock
and Potomac rivers, as well as the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore (near Bishop`s Head and Crisfield). With all gauges below
minor, feel no need to issue an coastal flood headlines at this
time. Nuisance flooding is forecast to continue in these areas
through early Friday, though water levels will inch down with each
cycle.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/KMC
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC/RHR
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion