Fabens, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

846
FXUS64 KEPZ 231216
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
616 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Minor impacts due to isolated showers and thunderstorms over
   mountain areas Tuesday. Above normal high temperatures persist
   until a cold front arrives Wednesday.
- More widespread precipitation enters the forecast Thursday
   through early next week, enhancing the risk for flash flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A pair of blocking patterns will work to influence sensible weather
in the near-term forecast. A Rex block will degrade Tuesday as its
stubborn high begins to push inland to the Great Basin. Meanwhile,
the MX upper high will continue to elongate as a pair of lows
release their their clutch on the Omega block over the CONUS. This
will create a complicated scenario moving into the forecast for the
remainder of the week.
Above normal temperatures will prevail on Tuesday with isolated to
widely scattered convection favoring portions of central NM. The
easternmost upper low lee of the Rockies will kick off a backdoor
front, which will surge southward and westward Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. The westward surge will likely bring some gusty
gap winds of around 40 MPH to areas on the west slopes of the
Borderland`s central mts Wednesday morning. The fropa will bring a
welcome downtick in high temperatures that afternoon, with central
to eastern locales seeing reductions around 7F to 12F compared to
Tuesday`s readings. The MX high will work to hinder access to
moisture, helping to keep thunderstorms isolated.
Further degradation of the blocking pattern will take shape
Wednesday night into Thursday, with the burly Pacific low finally
making its advance into CA. Its trek inland will overshadow the
high`s influence, allowing moisture to snake up the Sonoran and
Chihuahuan deserts into its eastern periphery. This will allow for
an uptick of storm coverage for western zones Thursday afternoon,
spreading eastward into Thursday night. The low strengthens as it
dives south near SoCal, abundant moisture continuing to enter its
area of influence. The low is forecast to barrel eastward across
the Desert Southwest through the weekend, a concept that is in
good agreement with both the ECMWF and GFS. With persistent
enhanced large-scale ascent accompanying it throughout its journey
and a moisture-rich environment, a multi-day event of widespread
showers and storms may dominate the extended. &&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Lingering shwrs are diminishing across swrn NM and improving
conditions will be seen overnight. Brisk ely to nly winds will
slowly taper off during the early portion of the TAF period,
becoming light and vrb most terminals. Another round of tstms is
expected Tuesday, with the best coverage favoring nrn areas of the
forecast area. Primary aviation hazards will include sudden and
strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall. Any direct hits to terminals will likely result in lcl
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys, the greatest chance of which will exist in
and around KTCS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
We will generally have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. For
today, we will see a few isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The best chances for rain will be over area
mountains. Our winds today will be from the southwest and may
occasionally be gusty. The gusty winds and thunderstorms will drop
off in the evening hours. An approaching cold front will swing
winds around to the northeast or east in the morning hours on
Wednesday. This front will have breezy winds and we will likely
see some wind gusts, especially along the west slopes of area
mountains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Moisture and rain chances will be on the increase this week, with
good chances for rain this weekend. For today we will have just a
slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly over
area mountains. Min RH`s today will be in the mid 20`s in the
lowlands and in the 30`s in area mountains. Tonight a back door
cold front will push across the region from the east to the west
and swing our surface winds around to the east. These east winds
will give us some gusty weather on the west slopes of area
mountains. We also will see our moisture levels continuing to
slowly increase. We will have isolated to scattered thunderstorms
for Thursday and Friday with min RH`s Thursday through Sunday at
or above 30% across the whole region. The possibility of heavy
rain which could lead to flash flooding, is back in the forecast
for this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  70  83  65 /  10  20  10  20
Sierra Blanca            90  62  75  56 /  10  20  30  30
Las Cruces               90  64  83  60 /  10  20  10  20
Alamogordo               90  62  82  58 /  20  30  20  20
Cloudcroft               68  43  58  41 /  20  40  30  20
Truth or Consequences    87  60  81  59 /  30  30  10  20
Silver City              83  57  80  55 /  10  10  20  30
Deming                   93  65  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
Lordsburg                88  65  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       92  69  82  65 /  10  20  10  20
Dell City                93  63  76  57 /  10  30  20  10
Fort Hancock             95  68  83  64 /  10  20  20  30
Loma Linda               85  59  73  58 /  10  20  20  20
Fabens                   93  67  82  63 /  10  20  10  20
Santa Teresa             90  66  83  62 /  10  20  10  20
White Sands HQ           91  65  82  61 /  10  30  20  30
Jornada Range            89  62  83  59 /  10  30  20  20
Hatch                    92  63  86  60 /  10  20  20  20
Columbus                 93  67  87  63 /  10  20  10  20
Orogrande                88  61  79  58 /  10  30  20  20
Mayhill                  77  48  64  46 /  20  40  40  10
Mescalero                80  48  70  46 /  30  40  30  20
Timberon                 77  47  67  45 /  20  30  30  20
Winston                  80  47  76  48 /  30  20  20  20
Hillsboro                88  57  81  55 /  10  20  20  30
Spaceport                88  59  82  58 /  20  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             84  51  81  50 /  20  10  30  30
Hurley                   86  59  82  57 /  10  10  20  20
Cliff                    90  59  89  60 /  10  10  20  20
Mule Creek               85  56  85  56 /  10  10  10  20
Faywood                  86  60  80  57 /  10  10  20  30
Animas                   90  65  88  63 /  20  20  10  10
Hachita                  88  64  85  61 /  20  20  10  20
Antelope Wells           89  64  86  61 /  30  30  10  20
Cloverdale               85  63  84  60 /  20  30  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion