Falcon, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS63 KSGF 191730
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak surface flow will allow for a generally dry day today,
  though isolated showers may be possible in the eastern Ozarks
  tonight into Saturday morning.
- More seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will
  occur into the weekend and early next week. While most rain
  chances will be isolated to scattered, there is potential for
  at least one day to see more widespread rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A few lingering, but dissipating, light showers remained on
radar early. With the cold front having moves all but east of
the Ozarks, morning lows were in the lower to middle 60s with a
few locations in the upper 50s.
Today is expected to be mainly dry across the region as an upper
level jet moves towards the region. This should be enough to
allow showers and storms to develop late tonight into Saturday
morning in the form of and MCS that develops on the jet in
eastern Kansas and moves into Western Missouri and the Ozarks
Saturday morning. The addition of warm air advection, some
isentropic ascent and low level jet nosing into the region
should allow the storms to last into the morning hours an bring
a fair chance for rain and storms. It may be possible with the
dynamics of the system to see a few strong storms and an
isolated severe storm may be possible. Depending on how the
early morning system behaves will likely determine the
evolution of the storms through the day Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
With cold air advection ongoing behind the cold front, generally
seasonable temperatures are forecast today, through the weekend
and into early next week as additional rounds of cool air round
the base of the upper level trough over the northern plains
into the Ozarks. There is good agreement with the models
lingering a trough across the northern plains and into northern
Missouri through the weekend. Any bit of energy that rounds the
base of the trough would be able to produce showers or storms
as a result.
There remains uncertainty in the ensembles which may have an
impact of location, duration and timing of rainfall going
through the weekend and into next week. With the breadth of
differing members, rain chances have remained from 30-50% chance
Monday through Thursday. Deterministic models suggest
instability will be present at least through Wednesday, so
thunderstorms can be expected with any rainy day.
The upper trough and associated low do lift to the northeast
early next6 week, only to be replaced by another upper level low
and troughing over the plains and continued rain chances by the
middle of the week. Overall, with multiple rain chances, cool
surface flow and cloud cover the potential is there for
slightly cooler than normal conditions for next week.
Hopefully, the region will see a relatively uniform rain that
will help with the ongoing flash drought that has developed
across the Ozarks over the past 30-60 days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR through the period with southwesterly winds prevailing
through most of today. Winds start to turn southerly tomorrow
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area
west to east by Saturday morning and afternoon hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Soria

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion