Flatgap, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS63 KJKL 141852
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
252 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather is expected to persist through Thursday night.
- Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
North-northeasterly flow aloft will become increasingly more
cyclonic in nature as a large double-barreled stacked low
strengthens and grows in size over the Carolinas and southern
Virginia. This feature then meanders in place as a surface low
strengthens and moves toward the North Carolina coastline.
Meanwhile, a narrow mid-level ridge continues, extending from Texas
northeast to the Great Lakes.
Our tranquil and warm weather pattern will continue through the
short-term period, with mostly clear skies through tonight gradually
giving way to increasing high clouds from the east through Monday
night on the periphery of the low. The main impact will be slightly
cooler daytime temperatures and less ridge-valley splits in
overnight low temperatures, and this will moreso be the case in the
far eastern parts of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
Guidance is generally in much better agreement over the eastern
Conus with the upper level pattern from Monday night to Thursday.
The consensus of guidance is for a broad upper low over the
Carolinas on Monday evening with an upper level ridge centered
over the Great Lakes. The upper low is progged to meander toward
the Appalachians/Blue Ridge into Tuesday night before trekking to
the north northeast and into the Mid Atlantic states through
Wednesday night and then becoming an open wave on Thursday and
merging with an upper trough developing over eastern Canada into
the Northeast. Shortwave upper ridging is expected to build into
the Commonwealth late Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the
axis of this ridge should shift east of eastern KY Friday. At that
point, an upper level low and broad trough working across the the
Central Conus will begin to approach the MS Valley and OH Valley
regions. Multiple shortwaves rotating through this trough could
cross eastern KY from Friday to the end of the period as it is
probable that the 500 mb trough axis lingers west of the area
through Saturday.
The upper level low to the southeast will bring an increase in mid
and low level moisture from late Monday into Wednesday. At the
same time, a sfc ridge of high pressure should generally persist
across the Appalachians. The increase in cloud cover will likely
limit diurnal ranges a bit from Monday night to Wednesday, leading
to smaller ridge/valley low temperature differences Monday night
and Tuesday with valley fog more patchy in nature on those night
as well.
With upper level ridging and sfc high pressure dominating and a
considerable amount of sunshine anticipated, Thursday may end up
being the warmest day of the week. Valley locations, especially
in the Big Sandy region as well as areas near Lake Cumberland
may approach the 90 degree mark for highs.
The next chance for showers and storms and some rainfall across
the region looks to arrive by the end of the period. Following
high temperatures averaging a few degrees above normal for most of
the long term period, the increase in moisture and clouds along
with chances for convection should result in highs dropping back
to right around normal for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions are observed at all terminals in the area this
afternoon. The latest satellite imagery and recent surface
observations depict a developing diurnal cu field and light/variable
winds. This diurnal cu field will subside after sunset, and the
clearing trend favors the development of valley fog tonight. Fog
coverage is likely to be greater than it was last night, but
confidence is not currently high enough to mention resultant vsby
reductions at any of the TAF sites. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a less than 30 percent chance of reaching MVFR-or-worse
visibility thresholds at LOZ and SME, but these probabilities have
been trending upwards with each model run. If this trend
continues, future TAF packages may need to consider an additional
from group for reduced visibilities between 08z and 13z at these
two sites. After any valley fog burns off tomorrow morning, VFR
conditions are forecast to return area-wide. High clouds may
spread across the region from the east tomorrow, but a dominant
surface high pressure system will keep winds light/variable and
visibilities well above 6SM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MARCUS

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion