Flomot, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

481
FXUS64 KLUB 101716
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- A few showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  early evening mainly northwest of a Morton to Childress line.
- Another chance for thunderstorms exists into the weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The CONUS is characterized today by significant storm systems in
the west and east with a stout ridge of high pressure in between
extending from central Mexico well into the Canadian Provinces.
The system along the Pacific coast will slowly drift eastward
across the northern CONUS as an increasingly embedded feature
within the ridge. As it makes its way to the eastern edge of the
northern Rockies, another system will make its way onshore
OR/WA/BC early on Sunday. Yesterday`s run suggested a complex
morph into a single system, but as suggested yesterday, we now
look to the systems remaining independent with the leading system
at H2 lifting north into MB by next Tuesday whilst the trailing
digs into nrn CA/NV. Thereafter, a slow filling trend will ensue
in the west leaving a mostly zonal flow regime. In turn, the lead
system will become absorbed into the Hudson Bay low across ERN ON.
The southern branch of the jet stream, presently maximized over
SOCAL, becoming weaker as it rides anticyclonically over the ridge
into W TX leaving the area, generally from the TX Panhandle
northward in a weak left exit region which has helped to sustain an
MCS earlier this morning.  The transition zone from subsidence to
lift associated with this feature should remain in the vicinity,
better north of us.  The area of max winds south of the NORCAL low
will weaken over time.  As we get into the weekend, the system
should become increasingly neutrally tilted with more favorable lift
into the weekend with indications that the system will become
negatively tilted well to our north on Sunday morning.  The high
then strengthens into the middle of next week with potentially two
jet speed maxes across the desert southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
An MCV has been making its way across the southern Texas
Panhandle having enhanced convection across our northern row of
counties earlier this morning. This activity is expected to
somewhat stabilize the airmass and may very well be sufficient to
suppress an already weak indication for thunderstorm activity
toward Parmer, Bailey, and Castro counties this afternoon. At this
point, rain chances look below mentionable limits for a warm
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The area will remain warm and dry with rain chances returning on
Saturday evening. Some locally heavy rainfall could be possible
west of the I-27 corridor though widespread hydrologic issues are
not anticipated. The CAPE/SHEAR profile looks somewhat anemic, but
given this time of year, a few strong storms could get going with
the downburst wind threat being the primary concern. Temperatures
should gradually trend downward closer to climo next week; that
is, highs in the mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR with generally light winds. Few SHRA and TS currently W of
PVW could drift into the airspace by 19-20Z, but an overall
weakening trend is expected by this time.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion