Florida A And M University, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS62 KTAE 011700
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The upper level trough will carry Hurricane Imelda out east
further into the Atlantic. As the storm moves away, a backdoor
cold front will move into our region from the northeast. Drier air
is expected to filter in, keeping our precip chances low to nil
on land. Surface high pressure will be extending from the
Northeast US down to the Gulf coast. The cold front is forecast to
stall over the waters of the NE Gulf late tonight. Temperatures
will not be affected by the frontal passage. Temperatures today
will remain in the mid to upper 80s for afternoon highs, and
overnight lows in the mid-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The high pressure will extend further south against the stalled
cold front over the waters. The tightening pressure gradient will
increase the winds over the region. We can expect sustained winds
over land ranging from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Although
there is a chance for a potential Cold Air Damming setup during
the latter part of the week, temperatures are not expected to
fluctuate much with highs in the mid-80s and overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s. But with the lowering dew points, apparent
temperatures will match along with the actual temps.
Over the weekend, a trough of low pressure (either developing
along the front or an area of low pressure in the Gulf) will nudge
north and the surface high will move off to the east,
establishing southerly flow for our region. PoPs will increase, at
least along the coastal regions. The forecast calls for a 40-60
percent chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, and
lingering into the start of the work week. Keep up with the
forecast, as this is about a moderate confidence.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Favorable boating conditions will continue for the daytime hours
through tonight with north/northeast winds around 10-15 kts and
seas ranging from 1-3 feet. Cautionary conditions are possible
during the overnight hours due to the nocturnal surges.
A cold front is expected to pass through and stall over the
marine waters during the day today, creating a tight pressure
gradient increasing the winds and seas. Advisory level winds will
likely begin Thursday and continue through the weekend with winds
around 20- 25 kts and gusts around 30kts. Seas are expected to
increase and range from 5-8 ft Thursday through the weekend.
Along with the increase of wind and seas, there is a decent
chance for showers and thunderstorms over the waters along the
stalled front. PoPs range from 30% over the nearshore waters to
nearly 80% for our far offshore waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Transport winds will be northeasterly through the period and
increasing to around 15-20 mph by Thursday afternoon. Mixing
heights will range from around 5000 ft to some above 6000 feet.
Dispersion values are expected to be high each afternoon, but the
higher values will be in pockets throughout all districts. MinRH
values will generally be in the low 40s and upper 30s percentage.
That should limit fire weather concerns, but be mindful of the
winds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
No significant rainfall is expected over the next few days.
Rivers are currently at low levels, so any rainfall should not
have much of an impact on them. Rain chances return later this
weekend. There are no hydrological concerns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  85  67  83 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   69  87  67  85 /  10  10   0  10
Dothan        64  83  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        64  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      67  84  65  82 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    68  87  67  85 /  10  20   0  40
Apalachicola  72  84  69  83 /  10  20  10  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion