Forest City, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

133
FXUS62 KGSP 241727
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern emerges ahead of a cold front and upper
trough with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms into the
weekend. Temperatures remain warm through Thursday before cooling
to near seasonable normal high temperatures into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Wednesday: A positive tilt trough remains draped from
the Great Lakes region to the Southern Plains with a closed upper
low centered over northern Michigan and a second piece of energy in
the base of the trough over the Southern Plains. Broad southwest
flow extends from the Deep South into the Appalachians with a broad
zone of convection reaching from Mississippi into the Tennessee
Valley. Most of this activity will stay to our west today beneath
better upper support and divergence aloft. A few predominately
diurnally driven showers and a couple thunderstorms will be possible
across the mountains into the immediate foothills this afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through today.
Heading into tonight, the 12z suite of CAM guidance is in fairly
good agreement that remnant upstream convection will push into the
mountains overnight with some activity bleeding over into the
foothills. A dearth of instability during the nocturnal minimum
should preclude any severe weather threat, but a strong storm with
locally gusty winds cannot be discounted should more organized
structures remain.
By Thursday, the positive tilt upper trough will gradually shift
east with a belt of enhanced flow and upper divergence translating
across the Appalachians. At the same time, the piece of energy in
the base of the trough is forecast to break off and begin evolving
into a closed upper low in the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At least some degree of shower activity will likely be
ongoing across the mountains with considerable cloudiness as well.
CAM guidance depicts redevelopment of convection during the
afternoon across portions of the area, but coverage and location
remain somewhat uncertain. Extent of cloud cover and lingering
showers from overnight activity will play a significant role in the
evolution of mesoscale details for the afternoon. One such scenario
is that a differential heating boundary materializes east of the
morning cloud cover and serves as the location for later convective
initiation. Guidance is also mixed on coverage with some CAM members
depicting mainly scattered storms. Depending on could cover, upwards
of 2000 J/kg of surface-based instability will be present with 30-
40kts of deep-layer vertical wind shear. This will be sufficient for
a couple isolated severe storms with a threat for locally damaging
winds. Positive tilt of the trough and respective shear vector
orientation isn`t overly favorable for widespread organized
convection and in fact, should convective coverage become greater
than expected there would be a tendency for storms to become
undercut by composite cold pools.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Wednesday: The center of an upper low moves from
the Mid-South at the start of the period eastward into the Southern
Appalachians by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front
moves into the area from the west Friday and stalls along the coast
by Saturday while a series of weak low pressure centers moves north
along the front. The deepest moisture and strongest forcing, along
with better instability, occurs on Friday as the front is moving
through. The precipitation will be more convective in nature, but the
severe chance will be lower than Thursday as the instability is
weak. Some mid level drying takes place on Saturday, but low level
moisture remains high with the low level flow turning more
northeasterly. Precip chances actually increase on Saturday with
better upper divergence ahead of the upper low, but thunder chances
are lower with weaker instability. Widespread heavy rainfall is
unlikely either day, but moderate QPF is expected. Isolated, brief
heavy rainfall will be possible in any storm, but the overall flood
threat is low. That said, any location where storms train over the
same area could lead to spots of nuisance flooding. Highs near
normal Friday drop below normal for Saturday. Lows above normal each
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday: The upper low remains in place on Sunday
before retrograding into Middle TN on Monday. It then opens up and
moves to the SC coast by way of GA Tuesday. The low moves east
Wednesday as a ridge builds into the OH Valley from the Desert SW.
At the surface, the front remains stalled over or near the Carolina
coast with waves of low pressure moving north along the front. High
pressure builds into the area from the north. These features keep a
moist E to NE low level flow across the area through the period,
although it does weaken on Wed as the front finally begins moving
east. The result is scattered showers for most of the area Sunday
and Monday with diminishing chances Tuesday and Wednesday. QPF is
generally light through the period which is good given the prolonged
nature of the precip chances. This keeps the flood threat very low
while helping the drought conditions across the area. Also, for now,
the 12Z GFS and its ensemble mean show one consolidated tropical
system but keep it well off shore. The Canadian and 00Z ECMWF show
two systems with one making a glancing blow to the Carolina coast.
As always, this could change so keep up to date with the latest
forecast. Highs remain near to slightly below normal until Wednesday
when they fall to around 5 degrees below normal. Lows will be
slightly above normal until Wednesday when they fall a few degrees
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A busy TAF period is expected as a period of
unsettled weather begins across the area. Scattered showers and
storms have already developed across the mountains and could result
in temporary restrictions at KAVL and potentially into the foothills
at KHKY. Heading into tonight, another round of showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms is expected to impact the mountains and
foothills, mainly at KAVL/KHKY but brief restrictions cannot be
ruled out at KAND/KGMU/KGSP. A fairly widespread deck of low stratus
is also expected to develop during the early morning hours and
persist through the rest of the period. MVFR ceilings will be common
and a few instances of IFR cannot be discounted. The development of
any fog is highly uncertain with periods of showers and widespread
cloud cover precluding the development of radiation fog. Some fog
could be possible following overnight showers and prior to sunrise,
but confidence is low at this time.
Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as associated
restrictions, continue for all terminals into Friday in association
with a cold front. Shower and thunderstorm chances may stick around
through the weekend. Mountain valley fog and low stratus are
possible each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion