Frederic, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

567
FXUS63 KAPX 160623
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
223 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog over northeast lower this morning; otherwise, another warm
  and dry day across the board.
- Marginal fire weather concerns owing to recent dry weather.
- Minimal rain chances through the rest of the week before we
  turn cooler with better rain chances by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Current Overview:
Current conditions across the area showcase a calm night with weak
(but decoupling) easterly synoptic flow. As such, marine influences
from Lake Huron have made their presence known... with fog
developing across the Lake Huron shoreline counties from roughly
Alpena to Arenac counties... APN and OSC currently muddling through
some lower visibilities... generally hovering anywhere from 1/2 to
1/4mi. Most other areas hold calm and clear for the time being.
Pattern Synopsis:
Rex blocking regime well underway with northern Michigan firmly
beneath a cutoff area of ridging above a trough over the
southeastern CONUS, with other areas of disorganized troughing over
the Plains. Stout area of surface high pressure will continue to
supply dry conditions beneath a strong subsidence inversion, leading
to another period of relatively uneventful, warmer than normal mid
September weather across northern Michigan.
Forecast Details:
Closely watching that area of locally dense fog along the Lake Huron
shore tonight. Guidance wants to drift that area of fog westward
with time into sunrise, which seems to be reflected by satellite
imagery showcasing a westward "leak" in the fog. Perhaps this bank
of fog intrudes into another column of counties westward. Lesser
coverage of fog the farther west one goes, and any fog scours out by
10-11am as diurnal heating and mixing commences.
Otherwise, yet another mundane weather day on the docket, with
decreasing clouds and well above normal temperatures. Highs near 80
to 85 west of M-33 in northern lower... low-to-mid 70s along the
Lake Huron shore. Generally 75 to 80 in eastern upper. Still have to
mention RHs dipping considerably in this pattern as drier weather
has led to better fire fuels on forest floors... so while we will
not explicitly hit elevated fire danger criteria due to light winds,
it is prudent to take precautions if burning brush of any sorts.
Tonight will be much of the same... clear and calm, with patchy fog
developing, again with particular focus on northeast lower Michigan,
but could also leak into eastern upper. Lows 48 to 55 across
interior and northeast lower, along with eastern upper... upper 50s
to near 60 elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Ridging regime set to continue into Wednesday as surface high to the
east remains dominant. Result will be one more day of warmer weather
with highs in the 80s and lingering marginal fire danger. Changes
are on the docket to close out the week. Troughing over the Plains
will crest the ridge and suppress the ridge axis southward,
initially drawing in a cooler airmass as a stationary front bisects
the area in a WNW to ESE orientation. Cooler and probably cloudier
conditions prevail north, with warmth clinging on for dear life to
the south seems to be the rule for the time being, though these
setups can be quite fickle and are subject to change. We do cling
onto ridging in the grand scheme of things, so moisture intrusion
will be offset by a lack of appreciable forcing. So anticipating
most area probably hold dry aside from some drizzle north of where
the front lands. This ridging regime will eventually break down as
persistent troughing over the Plains intrudes into the Great Lakes
over the weekend, which should result in much more appreciable rain
chances across the area, with potential for unsettled weather to
linger into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Mainly LIFR at APN early this morning in fog. PLN will bounce
between IFR and MVFR, while CIU/MBL will be MVFR at times. No
issues TVC. Conditions improve to VFR all sites by mid morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion