Fritch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS64 KAMA 081513
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1013 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A line of thunderstorms remains in place across northwestern
Oklahoma through Hemphill/Wheeler counties in the Texas Panhandle.
These storms continue to slowly slide to the east/southeast and
should be out of the area in the next hour or two. Models are
still very inconsistent on the area for potential additional storm
development for this afternoon. Given the model spread and with
some of the models showing storm initiation further west, have
included low end mentions of PoPs for most of the Panhandles this
afternoon. The rest of the forecast remains on track through this
afternoon.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Thunderstorms are possible today across mainly the eastern
  Panhandles. Some of the storms may become severe, with large
  hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
- Mostly dry conditions are forecast Wednesday through Friday with
  temperatures near to slightly above average each afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Showers and storms have cleared the Panhandles and re-development is
not expected overnight as convective inhibition has taken over the
region. What`s left of the 500mb shortwave is situated over SW
Kansas, and is exiting to the east. There`s a low chance (~20%) we
could see some light scattered showers develop early this morning
after 6 AM across the eastern Panhandles, but would likely be very
short-lived due to lack of lift.
The crest of upper level ridging will remain just to our west over
the Rockies this afternoon, but temperatures will warm further as it
approaches. Highs in the 80s are forecast (a few of the typical warm
spots will likely reach 90), and it will feel slightly muggy as 15-
20 mph south winds advect dew pts in the 60s. We`ll be keeping an
eye on the eastern Panhandles this afternoon-evening when a sfc
trough may provide enough lift to generate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms near the TX-OK state line. CAMs still support this
scenario, and even depict one or two benefit supercells riding a
boundary as they move south. Shear values of 40 kts combined with
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will be more than favorable for storms to
potentially become severe with large hail and damaging winds the
primary hazards. If low-level shear profiles turned out to be more
favorable, there would even be a low-end tornado threat (the overall
probability for tornadoes is ~2% or less within 25 miles of any
given location). Convection may congeal into a small cluster with
time, which may necessitate higher POPs across the east should this
trend persist. Regardless, activity should gradually decay as it
moves east-southeast towards the Red River and Texas Big Country
through the evening hours. PWATs are progged to be sustained in the
1.0-1.5" range across our east, with a 30-40kt LLJ pumping quality
theta-e directly into these storms. Localized heavy rain and
flooding can`t be ruled out as a result (10-30% chance for localized
rainfall totals >1").
500mb ridging is projected to further influence our weather on
Tuesday, enhancing the mid week warming trend with highs in upper
80s to mid 90s. If we are going to get any additional
precipitation Tue, it would be aided by 700mb theta-e advection
during the day. However, large-scale subsidence will be hard to
overcome, lending meager POPs 

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion