Gardner Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS63 KEAX 071149
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through
  the night into the morning hours. Rain shifts eastward
  through the second half of the night with rain dissipating by
  midday.
- Cooler weather moves in for a couple days before temperatures
  warm back above seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms look to continue through
the night. The 850mb cold front which is partially sustaining these
storms is slowly working its way toward the south and east with
storms expecting to follow along with it as it progresses. Upper
level divergence provided by an entrance region of the 500mb jet
over SE Nebraska combined with swift flow at 250mb will spark dome
more widespread convection across far NW MO through the overnight.
Plenty of shear will keep showers and storms going through the
overnight hours; however, the lack of instability will keep these
storms from deepening lowering concerns for all hazards (severe and
flooding).
Movement of the front starts to accelerate around 3-5 AM as the
500mb jet begins to migrate southward being pushed along by a ridge
migrating into the region. This clears storms out by mid morning to
midday. Cool stable air combined with this ridging brings
temperatures back down to more seasonal level with highs in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Radiational cooling overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday will cause low temperatures to dip into the 40s
region wide which is the coldest lows have gotten since September
6th.
The cool down doesn`t last very long as a longwave ridge maneuver
through the central CONUS midweek. This allows flow to reorient
southerly opening up the Gulf pumping in warm air and moisture
northward. High temperatures ascend back into the mid 80s by the end
of the week. Long range guidance does tamp down the warming with a
potential storm system moving across the area Sunday dropping
resetting temperature back to the upper 70s. Extended guidance is
beginning to hint at a seasonal shift in the upper level pattern.
Typically in the transition seasons we start seeing the divide
between tropical Gulf air and cooler Canadian air begin to sink
southward across the CONUS. During the spring and fall, this results
in almost sinusoidal fluctuations of upper level flow yielding large
swings in temperatures from above to below normal. What this also
yields is the potential for rain with these clashing air masses. Of
course, extended guidance is quite variable at these time scales and
many small alterations in the short term may greatly affect the long
term outlook.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Sub 1000ft CIGs are expected to continue at most of the
terminals through some of the morning hours. CIGs gradually
lift NW to SE as SHRA works its way south and eastward. A new
area of SHRA with isolated TSRA is expected to move through IXD
with VCSH/VCTS around MCI/MKC. RA is expected to vacate by
midday. Sky coverage opens through the afternoon. Winds remain
generally northerly becoming gusty behind the RA complex. Winds
become VRB after sunset with models suggesting some potential
for fog early tomorrow morning. Some uncertainties remain with
BR/FG forecast particularly how morning RA and afternoon
heating might affect low level moisture.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion