701 FXUS63 KABR 152031 AFDABRArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for rainfall again tonight/Tuesday (20-30%), with severe storm potential confined to Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) across southern SD Tuesday late afternoon/evening.
- Higher chances (60-70%) for rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps evening lingering through Friday. 1 to 2+ inches of rainfall possible (20-40% chance for 2"+).
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A cold front will move into the CWA on Tuesday, orienting itself from northeast to southwest through the area by 12Z. A weak wave of low pressure will also move into the region, with limited chances (~20-30%) for showers across central SD tonight into Tuesday morning. Instability is limited (MUCAPE
NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion