Genesee, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

213
FXUS66 KOTX 251811
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1111 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Vigorous dry cold front passage Thursday with windy and dry
  conditions resulting in critical fire weather conditions.
- Winds may also produce blowing dust across the Waterville
  Plateau into the Columbia Basin Thursday afternoon.
- Patchy frost for northern mountain valleys and northern
  Panhandle overnight Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will continue into Thursday with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Windy conditions and
very low RHs are forecast with a cold front passage on
Thursday. The combination of gusty winds and dry conditions will
lead to critical fire weather conditions across much of central
and eastern Washington. Chilly mornings Friday and Saturday
before temperatures see a bump up above normal over the
weekend. Cooler temperatures and chances for showers by early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
Thursday: A robust cold front remains on track to sweep through the
Inland Northwest bringing gusty west winds and mixing very dry air
down to the surface. The front will reach the Cascades in the early
to mid afternoon and will move eastward into the ID Panhandle by the
early evening hours. Winds will start out of the west/southwest
prior to the frontal passage and will shift out of the northwest
after the front passes. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are anticipated through the Cascade gaps, over
the Waterville Plateau, and across the Columbia Basin Thursday
afternoon and evening. A band of mid to high level clouds is
expected with the front, but no precipitation is forecast. As winds
pick up, very dry air will mix down to the surface from higher up in
the atmosphere and RHs will drop into the 10-15 percent range across
eastern WA and 15-25 percent for the ID Panhandle. Fire weather
impacts will be the main concern with this front. There is high
confidence in wind speeds and RH values meeting the thresholds for
critical fire weather conditions. New and ongoing fires will have
the potential to spread rapidly. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Thursday covering the Cascades, Columbia Basin, and
Spokane area down to the Blues. For western Chelan County, the warning
is out through Friday morning with poor RH recoveries in the
forecast and gusty winds expected to linger. In addition to creating
fire weather impacts, winds may also generate blowing dust over the
Waterville Plateau and across the Columbia Basin with winter wheat
planting underway. High temperatures Thursday will be 2 to 7 degrees
cooler than on Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Friday through Sunday: Weak ridging will redevelop Friday, then the
next trough approaches the West Coast through the weekend. Following
Thursday`s cold front, temperatures on Friday will be around 10
degrees cooler in the upper 60s to mid 70s, then will nudge back up
a few degrees into the 70s and low 80s Saturday and Sunday.
Sunday may be the last day we see highs in the 80s for the year
across the Inland Northwest. With a dry airmass over the region
Thursday night and Friday night, overnight temperatures will
cool into the 30s for some of our colder spots and sheltered
northern valleys including in Republic, Winthrop, Colville,
Chewelah, Deer Park, and Priest River.
Sunday night through Wednesday: The offshore trough will push inland
through the start of next week bringing persistent cooler
temperatures and chances for showers. Precip chances will move into
the Cascades Sunday, then expand eastward over the rest of the
region Sunday night into Monday. How much precip will fall remains
uncertain at this point. The Cascades will have the best chances of
seeing wetting rains, but confidence is lower for locations east of
the Cascades. /Fewkes
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A strong cold front will approach today bringing increased
west to southwest winds, shifting to northwest behind the front in
central and northeast Washington during the late afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts of 20-30 kts are forecast across the region
during the afternoon and evening. Strong westerly winds aloft
over the Cascades will favor mountain wave development through
the evening, potentially leading to gusty winds up to 45kts in
the valleys east of the crest.
Winds have cleared up visibilities around KEAT. Nearby fires
are expected to become more active today and KEAT/KEPH/KMWH
could see visibility lower again but to what degree carries low
confidence. The winds will also kick up areas of blowing dust
across the Columbia Basin. West winds could lead to reduced
visibility at KMWH/KGEG/KSFF this afternoon from a combination
of wildfire smoke and blowing dust. Otherwise skies are expected
to be clear for most of today, before a band of passing mid and
high clouds with the front.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Wildfire smoke from fires in Cascades pushing east as well as
areas of blowing dust this afternoon leads to low to moderate
confidence of the visibility forecast for KEAT/KMWH/KGEG. There
is higher confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period at
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, KLWS. There is low confidence in wind gusts up
to 45kts in the lee of the Cascades.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        46  69  47  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  46  69  46  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  66  42  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       52  74  50  80  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  71  36  72  39  78 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      46  68  46  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        48  67  49  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  73  47  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  73  55  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           44  74  51  74  51  80 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades
     National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone
     697)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Eastern
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western
     Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for East Washington
     Central Cascades (Zone 696).
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion