Georgetown, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

517
FXUS64 KMOB 210518
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper troughing moves into the area late this evening helping to
spark off isolated to locally scattered showers and storms this
afternoon into evening, mainly across interior portions of the
forecast area. This feature shifts east as we head into Monday
allowing for drier air to filter in across the region and for
precipitation chances to once again become near zero. Afternoon
temperatures remain well above normal today and Monday, with highs
in the lower to middle 90`s. Overnight lows will remain in the
middle 60`s over the interior with middle to upper 60`s nearer the
coast through Monday night.
Zonal flow becomes established across the forecast area in the
troughs wake by Tuesday into Wednesday as another more potent upper
trough begins to take shape over the central CONUS. This feature
will likely amplify and take on a positive to neutral tilt as it
swings across the eastern CONUS Thursday into Friday. This will
allow for our best chance at showers and thunderstorms so far
this month, with ensemble guidance hinting that rain chances could
need further adjustments upward in future forecast packages. For
now, will maintain likely PoPs as we head into Thursday and
Thursday night. An overlap of around 30 knots of deep layer shear,
CAPE around 1,500 to 2,000j/kg, and forcing Thursday into
Thursday evening may help to set the stage for a low end threat of
severe weather. Confidence is pretty low at this time given
differences in how forecast guidance is handling the troughs
evolution, however a low end threat for strong to damaging wind
gusts may exist Thursday into Thursday evening. Temperatures
remain well above normal Tuesday into Wednesday with afternoon
highs topping out in the lower to middle 90`s and overnight lows
warming from middle and upper 60`s Tuesday night to upper 60`s and
lower 70`s Wednesday night.
A cold front will transit the area Thursday night into Friday, once
again ushering in drier air to round out the week into the weekend.
A few lingering showers Friday will give way to a mostly dry
forecast as we head into the weekend. Afternoon highs will top out
in the middle to upper 80`s Friday through Sunday, with cooler
overnight lows in the lower to middle 60`s. A few spots over the
interior may even see some upper 50`s for lows. A Low risk of rip
currents remains in place for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle
beaches through Thursday. If confidence on stronger onshore winds
increases Wednesday into Thursday, an eventual upgrade to a Moderate
risk for rip currents may be needed. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR flight category generally prevails across the region through
tonight outside of temporary flight category reductions
underneath any showers or storms. Winds will be light and variable
less than 5 knots tonight, becoming a prevailing southeasterly
wind after daybreak Sunday at around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A diurnal pattern continues today with the development of a
generally onshore flow this afternoon then becoming offshore
tonight. An easterly to southeasterly flow develops on Monday and
turns southerly to southwesterly for Wednesday and Thursday.
Offshore flow becomes established Friday in the wake of a cold
front. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  91  69  89  68  90  69  90 /   0  20   0  10   0  10  10  30
Pensacola   74  88  72  89  71  89  73  89 /   0  20   0  10   0  10   0  20
Destin      75  87  73  87  73  88  75  87 /   0  20   0  10   0   0   0  20
Evergreen   67  94  65  93  65  94  67  94 /   0  30  10  10   0   0   0  20
Waynesboro  68  92  66  91  65  92  69  91 /  10  30  10  10   0  10  10  40
Camden      69  93  66  91  66  92  68  91 /   0  30  10  10   0   0  10  30
Crestview   67  92  66  91  65  92  68  92 /   0  30   0  10   0   0   0  20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion