Gilcrest, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

473
FXUS65 KBOU 140006
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
606 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening,
  with an isolated threat of severe storms across the northeast
  plains.
- Scattered showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly
  north Sunday morning.
- Unsettled, uncertain pattern for most of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery showing a strong shortwave trough
over Utah with scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead
of it over western Colorado. Over northeast Colorado, SBCAPE has
reached 300-800 J/kg (more than yesterday). Lift from the trough
combined with the instability in place is expected to bring
scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms to northeast Colorado
later this afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out an isolated
severe thunderstorm or two, but most/all storms are expected to be
sub- severe. Best chance for a severe storm will be over the
northeast plains. The trough lifts north of Colorado tonight and
will be over western Nebraska Sunday morning. Will keep a chance
for showers in the forecast through the night as the trough tracks
across Colorado. The best chance for additional showers will be
wrap around showers on the backside of the low towards sunrise
Sunday morning. Showers slowly come to an end from west to east
Sunday morning and may linger into the afternoon over the
northeast corner. Highs Sunday are expected to reach the lower to
mid 70s across northeast Colorado.
The upper level trough to our northeast lifts northward and
merges with the longwave trough over western Canada and the
Northern Rockies. Colorado will see a somewhat dry westerly flow
Monday around the base of the trough. This will bring warmer
temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast
Colorado. A shortwave trough embedded in the longwave trough to
the north pushes southward bringing a cold front and chance for
showers Tuesday. Troughiness remains over the area into Wednesday
with cooler temperatures and continued chance for showers.
For Thursday through Saturday, models are starting to converge on
a solution. They are showing ridging developing west of the
region Thursday. The ridge intensifies into Friday and Saturday
over the Central Rockies. This is expected to produce dry
conditions with temperature at or above normal. Chances for
precipitation are low, but we could see a few
showers/thunderstorms if enough moisture filters in under the
ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 556 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Another round of showers could move through all TAF sites the next
couple of hours, so have kept the PROB30. However, the atmosphere
near APA is still unstable, so have changed the TAF to include
thunder. For the rest of the night, a W/NW flow will dominate all
sites, with drainage winds possible just before sunrise. Ceilings
will fall between 5000-8000 ft overnight.
By 13Z Sunday, another round of showers is possible, along with
the chance (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion