Girvin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

079
FXUS64 KMAF 260346
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday
  morning, with better chances west of the Pecos.
- A warmer and drier pattern sets up next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge building east into West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, courtesy of a trough over SoCal.
This will result in a jump in thicknesses today, adding around 5 F
to this afternoon`s highs over yesterday`s.  The ridge axis will
pass through the CWA at around 00Z Saturday, after which the area
will be under southwest flow aloft.  A long fetch of convection was
observed Thursday afternoon/evening on the east side of the SoCal
trough, and CAMs redevelop this activity this afternoon, only
farther into our area as the trough pushes east.  KMAF 00Z PWAT came
in at a paltry 0.66", or just under the 20th percentile, so any
convection that develops into our area will not produce much in the
way of QPF.
Tonight, a 25kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, and this mixing will
combine with encroaching clouds from the west to add 2-3 F onto this
morning`s minimums.  Lows should come in ~ 7-9 F above climatology.
Saturday, cloud cover will continue increasing from the west as the
trough nudges into western Arizona.  This, and a slight diminishing
of thicknesses will result in highs similar to today`s, only maybe a
degree or so cooler, keeping highs only ~ 2-4 F above normal.
Convective chances will increase and expand east, but stop short of
the central Permian Basin. QPF continues to look petty.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Low to medium (20-60%) rain chances persist over the western half of
our area Saturday evening aided by upsloping southeasterly winds at
the surface. The best (40-60%) odds for rainfall will be within our
westernmost counties, given their proximity to an upper-level low
expected to be transversing the Desert Southwest. By Sunday, the
upper low looks to weaken and join the general flow of the jet
stream, becoming an open trough as it creeps closer to our region.
Rain chances decrease over the western half of the area a touch
Sunday compared to Saturday as a result of weaker ascent. However,
those west of the Pecos River will maintain rain chances between 20-
40% during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, temperatures Saturday
night settle into the 50s for some in the higher terrain, while most
dip into the 60s. Highs Sunday are largely forecast to top out in
the 80s.
Heading into a new work week, the upper-level trough begins to lift
northeast toward the Central Plains and Midwest, allowing ridging to
gradually build overhead. Warmer and drier conditions will define
the remainder of the Long Term period. Rain chances through the
week look to be low to none. By Tuesday, high in the 90s return
along the Rio Grande and Pecos river valleys. Wednesday, and more so
Thursday, the 90s become commonplace across the region. Overnight
lows will range within the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected next 24 hours in light return flow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  89  65  85 /   0  10  10  40
Dryden                   63  90  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            61  89  66  88 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           59  79  60  75 /   0  20  30  50
Hobbs                    57  86  61  85 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                    53  81  58  79 /   0  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     60  88  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   60  87  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     59  89  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion