Glencoe, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS63 KMPX 250808
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
308 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog this morning, mainly in western WI. Sunny skies
for the rest of the day.
- Warm temperatures and sunny skies persist through the weekend
  and into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Compared to the last couple nights, the fog is much patchier and
largely confined to the typical river valleys with less of a
presence across the MPX CWA with the sole exception of western WI.
RNH has been wobbling between 1/2sm to 3sm visibility since
midnight, generally favoring visibility above 1sm. As such we do not
anticipate needing another dense fog advisory for this morning
unless things rapidly deteriorate over the next hour or so.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday generally in the upper
70s to low 80s with mostly sunny skies as upper leveling ridging and
surface high pressure dominate our weather pattern over the next
several days.
Not much has changed within the forecast as quiet conditions are
still expected through at least the next week and likely beyond this
into early October. The upper level ridge breaks down as a trough
slides across Canada by Saturday, however surface high pressure
remains the dominant feature with a lack of synoptic scale lift
within the lower levels. An increase in general cloud cover is
possible by the middle of next week with some mid-level shortwave
energy looking possible, however this will depend on the trajectory
of a western trough that may or may not be close enough to affect
the area. The GEFS has a couple of members trying to produce low
amounts of rainfall by Wednesday, however all other members are dry
with only about 50 percent of membership showing any precipitation
within the 2 week period, with the `most likely` period being next
weekend by October 4th/5th. Not only do amounts vary significantly
but the other ensembles also support an overall dry forecast with
only smaller chances for precipitation through the first week of
October. Without a significant synoptic scale system, it seems
unlikely that we see any kind of appreciable rain chances coming
up.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Aside from areas of fog, some of which may be dense, east of
I-35 which would very likely impact the WI TAF sites, VFR
conditions are expected. Have already seen bouncing of
conditions at RNH and EAU, thus have kept the most degraded
conditions at those two sites but indication are that such
degradations will be more intermittent rather than sustained,
hence the TEMPO usage rather than prevailing. Beyond sunrise,
only mid-lvl fair wx cumulus clouds are expected for the
Thursday daytime hours, which clearing again Thursday night.
Patchy fog again possible for Friday morning, but confidence is
lower than previous mornings.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion