Glennie, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS63 KAPX 191015
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
615 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and cooler for the majority of the area today as sunshine
  builds through the day.
- Isolated shower or storm chance along portions of the
  northwest lower lakeshore this afternoon.
- Much more appreciable rain chances build late tonight,
  overspreading the region throughout the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Pattern Synopsis:
Ridging suppressed south and east by the now passed wave and
backdoor cold front. Moisture slug oriented NW to SE from roughly
Duluth, MN to Saginaw Bay slow to scour out due to us being in
between forcing mechanisms. Broad area of surface low pressure
beneath stubborn longwave troughing over the western Corn Belt
slowly moving eastward in the mean flow, with an approaching warm
front inching ever so closer to Lake Michigan by later tonight.
Despite that, we will see a quick return to ridging and subsidence
over the Great Lakes into today as surface high pressure intrudes
from northern Ontario, restoring a primarily dry regime to the
region as stubborn low level moisture overhead scours out from
north to south with time ahead of the approaching warm front,
delaying more appreciable rain chances until later tonight.
Forecast Details:
Clouds and drizzle this morning will slowly taper off, with sunshine
anticipated across eastern upper through the day... slowly building
south into northern lower. Clouds likely remain most stubborn along
and south of M-55 before turning sunnier into the afternoon.
Easterly flow will lead to at least some semblance of a lake breeze
response along Lake Michigan south of Grand Traverse Bay. With
downsloping help, despite decreasing moisture, there may be just
enough to spring some instability along the Lake Michigan shore.
Guidance is not bullish on this idea, but conceptually, it would not
be surprising to see a rogue shower or two along the shore south of
Grand Traverse Bay this afternoon. As far as temps go, while it may
feel a touch shocking to the system, these temperatures are actually
going to be right around normal for this time of year. Highs split
between near 65 across northeast lower and the eastern Yoop... near
70 across north central and most of NW lower... and mid-to-upper 70s
near Cadillac and Manistee.
Most areas hold dry tonight, though clouds are set to increase from
the west. Antecedent dry airmass should hold off any stratiform
rainfall originating from convection moving SSW to NNE from
Chicagoland. We will be lacking instability, so top-down saturation
will be the name of the game to start. Latest guidance is hinting at
a low level jet driven plume of instability along the front, which
may be sufficient to produce some convection closer to daybreak
Saturday. Certainly some thunder potential if this can materialize,
favoring spots west of US 131... with chances increasing the closer
one goes to the coast. Lows tonight vary from the upper 40s across
the eastern Yoop and northeast lower to upper 50s across NW lower.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Aforementioned warm front will slowly lift into the region through
the day Saturday, which will bring an increase in moisture and
clouds from the south and west. As it stands right now, this system
will be a slow mover, so most of Saturday will see showers and
thunder west of I-75 that eventually spreads east into the
afternoon. Shower chances will further overspread the area Saturday
night as the warm front clears the region... and a warmer and
noticeably more humid airmass will be drawn into the area for Sunday
as highs top out well into the 70s across much of northern
lower... and 70 to 75 across NW lower and the eastern Yoop. With
ample forcing overhead, anticipating shower and thunderstorm
coverage to increase considerably Sunday with diurnal heating.
Severe weather parameters look modest at best for the time
being, so suppose there is an outside chance of a marginally
severe storm. This system will slowly pass through Sunday night
into Monday, dragging a cold frontal boundary into the area
Monday... which means that additional showers and storms will be
possible, with pattern recognition suggesting the best chances
favor northeast lower due to what will likely be much more
favorable frontal passage timing. Lingering moisture and forcing
will keep showers in play as we head into tuesday and
Wednesday, with cooler, albeit, still slightly above normal
temperatures anticipated as we progress through the rest of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mainly MVFR CIGs expected to continue through the morning
hours, with brief IFR at MBL mainly. Suppose brief BR is
possible over the next hour or two but with the rest of the low
to mid cloud cover, that will likely be a difficult task to
maintain. CIGs may hover between VFR and MVFR at times this
morning in spots. Expect decreasing and lifting cloud CIGs
through the midday and afternoon hours with VFR conditions
returning. Winds easterly at about 5 to 10 knots with a few
gusts in the teens. Slight chance for a shower or storm in the
vicinity of MBL this afternoon as well.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion