Goffs, California Weather Forecast Discussion

124
FXUS65 KVEF 241924
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1224 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Precipitation potential exists Thursday through this weekend as
  anomalous moisture interacts with an upper level disturbance.
  Details and weather impacts continue to remain low confidence.
* Moisture lingers into early next week which could allow for
  continued precipitation chances, however low confidence in next
  week`s forecast at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Through Tuesday.
Current satellite imagery shows an upper level low off the central
California coast producing thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley.
The low is expected to track east into Nevada on Thursday, then
south into southern California/Arizona on Friday. PWATs in the area
are in the .5 to 1 inch range, which combined with favorable
dynamics associated with the low should kick off showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. However, confidence is still low in
the details as it depends on the strength, speed, and placement of
the low, along with available moisture and cloud cover that could
inhibit afternoon convection. For Thursday, the best chances for
precipitation are in northern Inyo County, the southern Great Basin,
and northern Mohave County where difluence aloft should help with
shower and thunderstorm development. Clearing in the afternoon may
increase instability and help with more robust storm development,
with gusty outflow winds and heavy downpours as potential hazards.
For Friday, the greatest precipitation chances are pushed into
northwestern Arizona as the low moves south and east, taking the
greatest moisture with it.
The upper level low tracks east across the lower Colorado River
through on Saturday and Arizona on Sunday. Ensembles indicate a
boost in moisture at this time as the low reaches a favorable
position to tap into tropical moisture. POPs should increase for
most locations on both Saturday and Sunday. However, confidence in
details is low at this time and finer details should become more
apparent over the next few days. Confidence is also low in what will
happen Monday onwards as this will depend on how fast the low exits
and how much moisture will linger over the region. Outside of
precipitation, lower heights should help maintain near to below
average temperatures over the weekend and next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Sustained winds of 8 to 10 knots are expected through
the afternoon, with occasional gusts to around 15 knots through
21Z. Typical southwest winds less than 7 knots arrive after
sunset. Northeasterly winds of less than 10 knots return tomorrow
morning, shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only a FEW
mid-level clouds with bases AOA 12kft from late morning through
early evening.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Overall, winds will
follow typical diurnal directional trends at all regional TAF sites
today. Occasional gusts are likely across southeast California and
the Colorado River Valley, including KBIH, KEED, and KIFP. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with FEW to SCT mid-
level clouds with bases AOA 10kft from late morning through early
evening across southern Nevada, along the Sierra and across the
western Mojave Desert. Showers begin to develop in the southern
Great Basin tomorrow morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Meltzer
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion