Grand Bluff, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS64 KSHV 122339
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Late summer heat will extend into this weekend and much of next
   week with high temperatures averaging the lower to middle 90s.
- Persistent upper-level ridging in place will continue to drive
   the heat and also suppress rain chances through next week.
- Drought and fire weather concerns may begin crop up with a more
   prolonged period of heat and dry conditions later this month.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
With dominant high pressure at the sfc and aloft, we`ve still
managed to derive a few very isolated showers near Toledo Bend
this afternoon, likely the result of weak differential heating.
Otherwise, it`s a continuation of this stagnant late summer heat
pattern courtesy of a stubborn upper-level ridge that remains
anchored across much of the southern and central U.S. Therefore,
persistence is the name of the forecast game through this weekend
with high temperatures still climbing into the lower and middle
90s while lows will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s with some
patchy fog possible once again in isolated locations.
As this persistent pattern carries into the new work week, soil
moisture will become further depleted throughout this period of
extended heat and dryness. Although fire weather conditions are
not particularly concerning right now, this could become more
problematic if a pattern change doesn`t materialize later on this
month. Fortunately, there are subtle signs that ridge may begin to
slightly weaken as we progress from mid to late next week. This
is the first real indication of some possible relief in the offing
by the end of next week with an upper-level trough and accompanying
cold front spilling south from the Plains and Midwest by Thursday
into Friday.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
For the 13/00Z TAFs, this afternoon`s Cu field is dissipating as
daytime heating wanes, with clearing skies aside from a few
clusters of weakly convective showers over deep east Texas between
KLFK and Toledo Bend, which are expected to quickly weaken and
dissipate with the loss of daylight. Mostly clear skies punctuated
by high clouds will continue overnight, followed by another
diurnal Cu field tomorrow. A little patchy fog is possible
tonight north of I-30, but the dry airmass keeps confidence in
impacts low enough to not prevail at this time. Light and variable
winds will become nearly calm overnight, assuming a somewhat
northwesterly orientation tomorrow, but remaining for the most
part light and variable throughout.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  71  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  95  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  92  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  72  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  70  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion